Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:05:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71b5…24bd crypto 1203 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$63 (-3%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate62%747W / 456L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day27.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$2
14 days−$11
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$53
weather 5% −$48
tech 2% +$29
sports 1% −$21
other 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -3.3% -12.5% 62% 45% -7.5%
≤30d 163 -7.9% -16.7% 53% 39% -11.8%
≤90d 1203 -4.0% -13.1% 62% 56% -12.9%
all 1203 -4.0% -13.1% 62% 56% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 56% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 39% -21.3%
15% -29.0% 17% -28.9%
20% -36.0% 8% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses747 / 456
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1203 / 1203
History coverage90d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day27.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1203 Trades
no open positions (163 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$5 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$3 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +50%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $31 −$21 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -60%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +261%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +81%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2646 history records