Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:09:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71b5…ae3e crypto 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate95%73W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$8
other 2% −$9
tech 0% −$3
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 29 -2.9% -12.2% 97% 0% -9.6%
all 77 -4.7% -13.7% 95% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 1% -9.6%
10% -22.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -29.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -36.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses73 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage233d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $109 $109 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 07 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $110 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control Jun 04 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 25? Jun 04 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? May 24 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 20? May 21 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 19 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8? May 18 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? May 07 $114 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tesla reach $555 in April? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump talk to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in April? May 04 $7 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? May 04 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $84,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,900 on April 27? Apr 27 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 12? Apr 20 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 3? Apr 04 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 2? Apr 03 $115 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in March? Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 30? Mar 31 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 29 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 12? Mar 18 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 9? Mar 11 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? Mar 06 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 1? Mar 02 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 27? Mar 01 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 25? Feb 26 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 22? Feb 23 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 20? Feb 21 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on February 1 Feb 17 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 14? Feb 15 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 12? Feb 13 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on February 10? Feb 11 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on February 8? Feb 08 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $92,000 on February 6? Feb 06 $110 $0 +0%
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 2? Feb 04 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 31? Jan 31 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 30? Jan 31 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 28? Jan 29 $107 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $109 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $109 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $110 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $107 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $104 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $107 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $105 30d
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control BUY No 99¢ $6 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $109 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? BUY No 100¢ $114 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? BUY No 100¢ $98 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $84,000 on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $101 50d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,900 on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $101 51d
Will Tesla reach $555 in April? BUY No 100¢ $4 61d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY No 22¢ $5 61d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 12? BUY No 100¢ $104 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $106 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $107 71d
Will Trump talk to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in April? BUY No 91¢ $7 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $112 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $113 75d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $115 77d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $108 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $111 82d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $113 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $113 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $110 89d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $108 91d
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $2 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.92 · official $108.87 (match) · 155 history records