Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:32:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71b6…3804 weather 436 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$39 (-0%) realized +$333 · open −$372
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate96%407W / 19L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$659now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$14
14 days+$25
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$290
sports 1% −$169
crypto 0% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 216 -0.8% -10.3% 97% 1% -9.4%
≤90d 426 -1.3% -10.7% 96% 4% -9.6%
all 426 -1.3% -10.7% 96% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 4% -9.6%
10% -19.2% 3% -18.2%
15% -27.0% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.2% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$22 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$659
Realized+$333
Unrealized−$372
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses407 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions10
Markets (closed)426 / 436
History coverage80d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 426 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 21? No 100¢ 92¢ $249 $229 −$20 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? Yes 100¢ 36¢ $519 $187 −$332 (-64%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 21? No 100¢ 99¢ $53 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 21? Yes 100¢ 86¢ $55 $48 −$7 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 21? No 100¢ 83¢ $54 $44 −$9 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 21? No 100¢ 97¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 21? Yes 100¢ 94¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 21? Yes 100¢ 97¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 21? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $74 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $330 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 20? Jun 21 $662 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 20? Jun 21 $358 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $702 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 36°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 19? Jun 20 $743 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 19? Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 19? Jun 20 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $251 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C or higher on June Jun 19 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $148 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 18 $237 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 17? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 17? Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 17? Jun 18 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 18 $438 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 17? Jun 18 $152 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $127 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $95 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 17 $191 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 17 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $144 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,015 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 100¢ $6 56m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $200 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $109 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $6 17h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $14 17h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $6 17h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $20 18h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $23 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $659.16 · official $659.16 (match) · 1680 history records