Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:10:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71b7…ee6c world 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%15W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$7
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$2
other 23% +$1
sports 17% −$10
politics 16% −$2
economics 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.1% -10.5% 43% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 20 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 32 +13.1% +2.4% 47% 3% -9.5%
all 33 +9.7% -0.7% 45% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 3% -9.8%
10% -10.2% 3% -18.4%
15% -18.9% 3% -26.3%
20% -26.9% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage490d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 88¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $37 +$2 +5%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $66 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $4 −$1 -14%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $16 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $33 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $94 +$5 +5%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $28 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $28 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $176 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 31 $29 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $61 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $62 −$7 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $21 +$1 +7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $136 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $100 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 22 $14 +$1 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $454 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $250 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $227 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $476 −$2 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $59 +$1 +1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $248 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $87 $0 +0%
Drexel vs. Delaware Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $38 4m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $37 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $7 44h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $25 44h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $7 45h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $26 45h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $7 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $26 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $18 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $15 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 6¢ $4 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 7¢ $4 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 21¢ $13 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $34 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $28 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $33 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $33 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $33 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $33 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.69 · official $0.00 · 147 history records