Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:23:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
71 0x71b9…58a7 sports 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,200 (-3%) realized −$1,346 · open +$146
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate68%84W / 39L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$296per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$3,307now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$33
14 days−$409
30 days−$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$1,264
world 33% −$366
sports 11% +$41
tech 9% +$257
finance 2% +$20
crypto 1% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -14.9% -23.0% 63% 53% -7.3%
≤30d 71 -1.1% -10.5% 62% 46% -11.5%
≤90d 123 -0.0% -9.5% 68% 43% -12.9%
all 123 -0.0% -9.5% 68% 43% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 43% -12.9%
10% -18.2% 26% -21.3%
15% -26.1% 20% -28.9%
20% -33.3% 13% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$116 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$3,307
Realized−$1,346
Unrealized+$146
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses84 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions15
Markets (closed)123 / 138
History coverage95d
Avg bet$296
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 94¢ 99¢ $705 $740 +$35 (+5%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 84¢ 100¢ $501 $600 +$99 (+20%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 90¢ 99¢ $450 $495 +$45 (+10%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $480 $495 +$15 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $161 $230 +$68 (+43%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 21¢ $89 $208 +$120 (+134%)
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Canada 75¢ 72¢ $150 $145 −$5 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $170 $106 −$64 (-38%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $109 $102 −$6 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $118 $58 −$60 (-50%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $87 $58 −$30 (-34%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $52 $38 −$14 (-28%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $24 $20 −$4 (-15%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 50¢ 92¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+84%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 60¢ 3¢ $60 $3 −$57 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $87 +$13 +14%
Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 27 $94 +$6 +7%
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 27 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 27 $15 +$15 +100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 27 $11 −$10 -85%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $83 +$17 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $59 +$41 +70%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -96%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $181 +$19 +11%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $180 +$20 +11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $76 +$24 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $127 +$23 +18%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $137 +$63 +46%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $107 +$93 +88%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $239 +$6 +3%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $135 +$5 +4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $60 +$7 +12%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $47 +$16 +34%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $27 −$11 -40%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $14 +$119 +855%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $155 −$123 -79%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $60 +$32 +53%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1,807 −$664 -37%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 17 $13 $0 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $197 +$98 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 +$97 +48%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $60 +$32 +53%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $45 +$5 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $30 +$50 +170%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 75¢ $151 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 30¢ $30 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $87 19h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 19h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 44h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 45h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 45h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 45h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 45h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 2d
Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 93¢ $94 2d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 90¢ $180 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $181 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $76 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $127 4d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 50¢ $5 4d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 4d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 15¢ $15 5d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $22 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,306.57 · official $3,306.57 (match) · 422 history records