Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:51:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71bc…4dee world 26 markets active 3h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 27% $0
other 24% +$2
politics 23% +$4
crypto 18% $0
finance 6% $0
sports 1% −$12
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.4% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 +0.4% -9.2% 27% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 19 +0.3% -9.2% 26% 5% -9.2%
all 26 +4.0% -5.9% 38% 15% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 15% -9.9%
10% -14.9% 12% -18.6%
15% -23.1% 8% -26.4%
20% -30.6% 8% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage526d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $36 +$2 +5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $19 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $47 −$2 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $57 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $25 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $39 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $34 +$1 +3%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 23 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $51 +$6 +12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $12 $0 -4%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $14 −$1 -4%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $218 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 10 $217 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $218 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Western Michigan vs. Akron Mar 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Trump second inauguration gets more viewers than first? Feb 03 $2 +$5 +203%
Will Terry McLaurin score a touchdown? Feb 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? Jan 22 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Jeremiah Smith score a touchdown AND Quinn Ewers NOT throw an int Jan 11 $8 +$2 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $35 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $35 10h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $36 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 74¢ $34 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $3 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $16 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $19 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $12 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $12 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $8 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 30¢ $12 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $21 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $21 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $39 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $39 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $2 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 83¢ $25 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $25 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $14 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $24 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $39 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $27 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $8 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $35 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records