Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:44:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
71 0x71bf…a387 sports 118 markets active 5d ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,555 (+3%) realized +$1,555 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate71%84W / 34L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$516per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$22
14 days+$11
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,545
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +2.4% -7.4% 60% 27% -12.9%
≤30d 34 +2.8% -6.9% 71% 35% -9.3%
≤90d 45 -18.0% -25.8% 56% 27% -73.3%
all 118 +2.1% -7.6% 71% 41% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 41% -7.2%
10% -16.5% 22% -16.1%
15% -24.5% 13% -24.2%
20% -31.9% 8% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$870) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$209 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,555
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses84 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)118 / 118
History coverage151d
Avg bet$516
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 118 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $67 −$67 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $63 +$3 +5%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $59 +$4 +7%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $48 +$12 +25%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $42 +$5 +12%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $43 −$1 -2%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $34 +$9 +27%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $44 −$10 -24%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $45 −$1 -1%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $27 +$18 +69%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $27 $0 -2%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones Jun 09 $26 +$2 +6%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 09 $24 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 09 $22 +$2 +10%
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Group Jun 09 $22 $0 -2%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia Jun 09 $21 +$1 +5%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 09 $20 +$1 +7%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $88 −$24 -27%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 09 $38 +$5 +14%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $36 +$3 +7%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 08 $33 +$3 +8%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $27 +$6 +23%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $20 +$8 +38%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 07 $19 +$1 +3%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 07 $14 +$5 +38%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $34 −$20 -59%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $27 +$7 +27%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $23 +$4 +19%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $69 +$16 +22%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $200 +$19 +9%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $40 −$1 -2%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $11 −$11 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $10 $0 +4%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 02 $8 +$2 +24%
Bucks vs. Suns Mar 22 $26 −$2 -10%
Hornets vs. Celtics Mar 22 $710 −$710 -100%
Warriors vs. Jazz Mar 22 $670 −$670 -100%
Kings vs. Clippers Mar 22 $890 −$890 -100%
Knicks vs. Kings Mar 22 $81 −$81 -100%
Celtics vs. Spurs Mar 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Pelicans vs. Magic Mar 22 $93 −$93 -100%
Nuggets vs. Warriors Mar 22 $700 −$700 -100%
76ers vs. Raptors Mar 22 $129 −$129 -100%
Wizards vs. Clippers Mar 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Thunder vs. Wizards Mar 22 $20 +$1 +4%
Magic vs. Heat Mar 15 $810 +$70 +9%
Nuggets vs. Lakers Mar 15 $1,010 −$18 -2%
Wizards vs. Celtics Mar 14 $950 +$52 +6%
Bulls vs. Clippers Mar 14 $1,000 +$122 +12%
Pelicans vs. Rockets Mar 14 $810 +$20 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A BUY Misa Esports 84¢ $67 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 100¢ $66 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 95¢ $63 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 100¢ $63 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 93¢ $59 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 69¢ $59 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $48 5d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C SELL Saigon Warriors 86¢ $47 6d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C BUY Saigon Warriors 76¢ $42 6d
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp SELL Tallon Griekspoor 80¢ $42 6d
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tallon Griekspoor 81¢ $43 6d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 100¢ $44 6d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 78¢ $34 6d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins SELL Miami Marlins 69¢ $34 6d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 89¢ $44 6d
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx SELL Minnesota Lynx 96¢ $44 6d
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 97¢ $45 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 99¢ $45 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ $27 6d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL Legacy 88¢ $27 6d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 89¢ $27 6d
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones SELL Laura Siegemund 100¢ $27 6d
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones BUY Laura Siegemund 94¢ $26 6d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis SELL Sorana Cirstea 100¢ $26 6d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis BUY Sorana Cirstea 94¢ $24 6d
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Ser SELL Lavked 100¢ $24 6d
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Ser BUY Lavked 91¢ $22 7d
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Group SELL Rooster 90¢ $22 7d
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Group BUY Rooster 91¢ $22 7d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $22 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 263 history records