Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:22:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
71 0x71c0…6d5b crypto 540 markets active 2h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$166 (-0%) realized −$166 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%524W / 15L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$11
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$212
weather 8% +$31
politics 0% −$4
other 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 43 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 214 +0.2% -9.3% 98% 0% -9.4%
all 539 +0.2% -9.4% 97% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 1% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$43 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$272
Realized−$166
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses524 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)539 / 540
History coverage252d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 539 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $272 $272 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $272 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $271 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $271 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $271 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $271 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $270 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $266 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $269 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $266 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $268 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $268 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $268 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $266 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $266 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $266 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $300 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $453 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $339 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $792 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $791 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $786 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $780 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $782 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $350 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $430 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $781 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 01 $580 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $199 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 28? May 29 $199 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 27? May 27 $301 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 27 $477 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 26? May 26 $477 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 25? May 26 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? May 25 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 24? May 25 $774 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 24? May 24 $774 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 23? May 23 $773 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 22? May 22 $772 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 21 $772 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 20? May 21 $771 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $769 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 19? May 19 $309 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 18? May 19 $769 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $768 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 17? May 18 $767 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 17? May 17 $766 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 16? May 16 $766 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 15? May 15 $565 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on May 14? May 15 $201 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $272 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $272 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $271 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $271 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $271 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $271 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $270 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $266 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $269 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $266 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $268 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $268 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $268 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $266 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $266 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $266 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $300 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $300 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $453 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $339 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $792 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $791 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $786 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $780 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $782 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $430 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $350 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $781 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $199 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $199 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $271.59 · official $271.59 (match) · 1184 history records