Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:46:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

71
0x71ca…3501
politics · 106 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$235,313 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$163,552 · open +$4,733
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$56,401
Realized−$163,552
Unrealized+$4,733
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses68 / 178
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$1,202
Open positions6
Markets (closed)246 / 106
History coverage182d
Avg bet$15,161
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 6 History 246 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$138,764
7 days−$137,403
14 days−$157,393
30 days−$153,495
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $28,595 $29,934 +$1,339 (+5%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 81¢ 98¢ $8,999 $10,927 +$1,928 (+21%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 50¢ 51¢ $5,362 $5,470 +$107 (+2%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 88¢ 94¢ $4,888 $5,211 +$322 (+7%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 67¢ 86¢ $3,722 $4,750 +$1,028 (+28%)
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $101 $110 +$9 (+9%)
Will Raul Perestrello win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will J.J. Spaun win The 2025 U.S. Open? No 82¢ 0¢ $728 $0 −$728 (-100%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $4,374 $0 −$4,374 (-100%)
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Cho Kuk be elected the next president of South Korea? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $568 $0 −$568 (-100%)
Will All I Want For Christmas Is You - Mariah Carey be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $2,000 $0 −$2,000 (-100%)
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $379 $0 −$379 (-100%)
Will Cristian-Vasile Terheș win the Romanian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2,029 $0 −$2,029 (-100%)
Mariners vs. Diamondbacks Mariners 47¢ 0¢ $940 $0 −$940 (-100%)
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Australia win Eurovision 2025? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
White Sox vs. Rangers White Sox 33¢ 0¢ $1,100 $0 −$1,100 (-100%)
Will Manuela Magno win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Cubs vs. Marlins Marlins 41¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Phillies vs. Rockies Rockies 28¢ 0¢ $111 $0 −$111 (-100%)
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $7,053 $0 −$7,053 (-100%)
Boxing: Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov Makhmudov 17¢ 0¢ $1,827 $0 −$1,827 (-100%)
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election? Yes 85¢ 0¢ $7,784 $0 −$7,784 (-100%)
Will Kwon Yeong-guk be elected the next president of South Korea? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $568 $0 −$568 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raul Perestrello win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will J.J. Spaun win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 14 $728 −$728 -100%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cho Kuk be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 14 $568 −$568 -100%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meetin Jun 14 $379 −$379 -100%
Will Cristian-Vasile Terheș win the Romanian presidential election? Jun 14 $2,029 −$2,029 -100%
Mariners vs. Diamondbacks Jun 14 $940 −$940 -100%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2025? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
White Sox vs. Rangers Jun 14 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Will Manuela Magno win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Cubs vs. Marlins Jun 14 $110 −$110 -100%
Phillies vs. Rockies Jun 14 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Kwon Yeong-guk be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 14 $568 −$568 -100%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2025? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2025? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Jun 14 $932 −$1,975 -212%
Will Anamaria Gavrilă win the Romanian presidential election? Jun 14 $2,029 −$2,029 -100%
Will Ilie Bolojan win the Romanian presidential election? Jun 14 $2,029 −$2,029 -100%
Will Joana Amaral Dias win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jun 14 $2,410 −$2,410 -100%
Yankees vs. Red Sox Jun 14 $2,132 −$2,132 -100%
Will Pedro Passos Coelho win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will any other candidate win the Romanian presidential election? Jun 14 $2,141 −$2,141 -100%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 14 $568 −$568 -100%
Will Aristides Teixeira win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Rays vs. Red Sox Jun 14 $1,439 −$1,532 -106%
Will Silviu Predoiu win the Romanian presidential election? Jun 14 $2,029 −$2,029 -100%
Pacers vs. Knicks Jun 14 $5,261 −$5,261 -100%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2025? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Oh Se-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 14 $568 −$568 -100%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Jun 14 $2,029 −$2,029 -100%
Will Kim Kyoung-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 14 $568 −$568 -100%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Angels vs. Yankees Jun 14 $2,166 −$2,166 -100%
Will Bill Clinton be named in Epstein files? Jun 14 $541 −$541 -100%
Will Ireland win Eurovision 2025? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Mariners vs. Diamondbacks Jun 14 $929 −$798 -86%
Will Maciej Maciak be the next President of Poland? Jun 14 $1,112 −$1,112 -100%
Will Mircea Geoană win the Romanian presidential election? Jun 14 $2,029 −$2,029 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $361 −$361 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win between 47% and 49% of the vote in the South Ko Jun 14 $470 −$470 -100%
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be more th Jun 14 $2,046 −$2,046 -100%
Will Yoo Seong-min be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 14 $568 −$568 -100%
Oilers vs. Panthers Jun 14 $2,248 −$2,248 -100%
Will Krzysztof Stanowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 14 $1,112 −$1,112 -100%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 33% +$39,549
politics 32% −$74,207
world 15% +$14,350
sports 7% −$14,906
other 7% +$6,278
culture 3% +$2,185
finance 2% +$3,589
crypto 1% +$3,000
tech 0% +$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 50¢ $20 1h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 50¢ $1 2h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 50¢ $10 5h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 50¢ $1 5h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 50¢ $127 13h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 50¢ $60 15h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 50¢ $3 25h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 50¢ $16 26h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 50¢ $71 28h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 50¢ $1 28h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 50¢ $561 28h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 50¢ $38 30h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 50¢ $221 30h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 50¢ $2 34h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 50¢ $20 35h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 50¢ $5 35h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 50¢ $7 36h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 50¢ $131 36h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 50¢ $503 37h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 50¢ $3 37h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 50¢ $146 37h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 50¢ $5 37h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 50¢ $9 38h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 50¢ $2 38h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 50¢ $202 39h
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 50¢ $2 2d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 50¢ $476 2d
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? BUY No 50¢ $2,718 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 82¢ $41 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 82¢ $25 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-64.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 -97.3% -97.5% 1% 1% -81.9%
≤30d 158 -90.2% -91.1% 6% 3% -47.3%
≤90d 189 -76.6% -78.8% 17% 8% -23.9%
all 246 -61.0% -64.7% 28% 14% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -64.7% 14% -17.5%
10% ← realistic here -68.1% 7% -25.4%
15% -71.1% 6% -32.6%
20% -74.0% 4% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56,401.03 · official $56,401.03 (match) · 3500 history records