Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:19:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
71 0x71cc…9144 other 562 markets active 2h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,953 (+7%) realized +$1,550 · open +$2,403
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%213W / 340L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$109est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$12,630now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$263
7 days+$992
14 days+$685
30 days+$622
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$4,553
sports 22% −$42
crypto 7% −$353
politics 1% −$317
world 1% −$176
economics 0% −$195
culture 0% +$174
tech 0% −$14
finance 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +23.1% +11.4% 51% 48% +9.6%
≤30d 166 +3.5% -6.3% 44% 42% -3.8%
≤90d 283 -0.3% -9.8% 44% 43% +2.2%
all 553 -8.3% -17.0% 39% 38% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 38% -7.5%
10% -24.9% 37% -16.4%
15% -32.2% 35% -24.4%
20% -38.8% 34% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$51 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$12,630
Realized+$1,550
Unrealized+$2,403
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses213 / 340
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$109
Open positions6
Markets (closed)553 / 562
History coverage202d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 553 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $9,843 $12,224 +$2,381 (+24%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 62¢ 67¢ $187 $201 +$14 (+7%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 38¢ 40¢ $80 $85 +$5 (+7%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 47¢ 52¢ $47 $52 +$4 (+10%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 60¢ 58¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 299 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $12 +$10 +79%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $15 +$14 +93%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $25 +$18 +70%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 23 $30 +$34 +112%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $101 +$48 +48%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $20 +$42 +206%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $69 +$47 +69%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $41 +$5 +12%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $35 +$1 +3%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $882 +$77 +9%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $14 −$14 -98%
Rayan Cherki: 1+ assists Jun 22 $26 −$25 -98%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $56 +$33 +60%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $31 +$53 +172%
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Jun 21 $25 −$24 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $76 −$76 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $51 +$49 +97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $30 +$24 +79%
Gavi Paez: 1+ shots Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$48 +48%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $78 +$57 +73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $152 +$79 +52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $121 +$63 +52%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals Jun 20 $51 +$88 +172%
Cody Gakpo: 3+ goals Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $45 −$17 -37%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $36 −$35 -98%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$2 -8%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $20 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$120 +2243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$16 +65%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $51 +$40 +79%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $132 +$100 +76%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $41 −$40 -99%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $203 +$155 +76%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $13 −$13 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$33 +32%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $14 +$18 +124%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $14 +$5 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $51 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $12 10h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $15 10h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $25 10h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 67¢ $101 14h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $279 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 68¢ $680 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $680 17h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 19¢ $14 21h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed SELL OG 73¢ $36 23h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 70¢ $35 23h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 24¢ $8 23h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 26¢ $10 23h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 23¢ $10 23h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 71¢ $37 23h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 39¢ $5 23h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 23h
Rayan Cherki: 1+ assists BUY Yes 19¢ $26 23h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 46¢ $30 23h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $31 23h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $20 23h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 37¢ $15 23h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 13¢ $10 24h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $10 34h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $20 34h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $81 34h
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $10 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,630.25 · official $12,630.26 (match) · 1197 history records