Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:16:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71cf…5a19 crypto 153 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (158 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$69 (+4%) realized +$81 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%93W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day158.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$17
world 0% $0
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (158 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 151 +4.0% -5.9% 62% 62% -8.2%
≤30d 151 +4.0% -5.9% 62% 62% -8.2%
≤90d 151 +4.0% -5.9% 62% 62% -8.2%
all 151 +4.0% -5.9% 62% 62% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover158.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 62% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 59% -17.0%
15% -23.1% 46% -25.0%
20% -30.6% 34% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$81
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses93 / 58
Open positions2
Markets (closed)151 / 153
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day158.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 4¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$23 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$10 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$6 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$10 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$8 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$20 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$10 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$8 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$8 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$8 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$5 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$11 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$11 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$18 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$6 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$8 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$13 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$8 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $12 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $14 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $13 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $12 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $11 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $12 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $11 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $13 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $14 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $16 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $18 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $12 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.78 · official $0.78 (match) · 251 history records