Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:46:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71d0…b73a weather 833 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$343 (-1%) realized −$306 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate91%758W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day24.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$319now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$226
14 days+$204
30 days−$245
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$482
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +23.6% +11.9% 88% 50% +18.5%
≤30d 46 -4.8% -13.9% 70% 52% -5.3%
≤90d 830 -0.9% -10.4% 91% 10% -9.4%
all 830 -0.9% -10.4% 91% 10% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 10% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 4% -18.0%
15% -26.8% 3% -26.0%
20% -34.0% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$46 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$319
Realized−$306
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses758 / 72
Open positions3
Markets (closed)830 / 833
History coverage86d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day24.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 830 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 24? No 71¢ 65¢ $152 $140 −$12 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 23? No 88¢ 96¢ $103 $112 +$8 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 23? No 72¢ 48¢ $100 $67 −$33 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 23? Jun 23 $39 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $13 −$11 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $35 +$54 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $53 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $271 +$107 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $119 +$33 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $99 +$27 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 +$9 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $26 +$16 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $22 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $23 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $21 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 7? Jun 07 $15 +$6 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 6? Jun 06 $11 +$4 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $6 +$5 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 4? Jun 04 $79 −$73 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $17 −$10 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 4? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $461 −$341 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $71 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 3? Jun 03 $4 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 3? Jun 03 $111 −$108 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $27 +$17 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $356 +$89 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $33 +$41 +125%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 1? Jun 02 $272 +$111 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 1? Jun 02 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on May 31? Jun 01 $205 +$77 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 30? May 31 $145 +$65 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 29? May 29 $486 −$483 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 29? May 29 $10 −$9 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 29? May 29 $69 −$69 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 28? May 29 $523 +$131 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 28? May 29 $10 +$5 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 28? May 29 $30 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 27? May 28 $409 +$41 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on May 27? May 28 $93 +$18 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 26? May 27 $148 +$19 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 26? May 26 $310 +$37 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on May 26? May 26 $128 +$8 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 25? May 26 $132 +$14 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 25? May 25 $297 +$127 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 24? May 24 $172 −$172 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 23? May 23 $357 +$113 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 22? May 22 $257 +$29 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on May 22? May 22 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 21? May 21 $122 +$5 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 23? SELL No 67¢ $41 24m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 23? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 38m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 23? BUY No 64¢ $2 44m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 23? BUY No 64¢ $4 44m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 23? BUY No 64¢ $7 47m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 23? BUY No 64¢ $10 48m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 23? BUY No 64¢ $8 51m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 23? BUY No 64¢ $8 51m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 51m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 51m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 51m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 53m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 23? BUY No 85¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 23? BUY No 90¢ $68 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 23? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 72¢ $27 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 72¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 72¢ $29 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 72¢ $19 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 72¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 23? BUY No 72¢ $15 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 24? BUY No 71¢ $155 23h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? SELL Yes 77¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? SELL Yes 77¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? SELL Yes 77¢ $23 25h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 91¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 91¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 91¢ $3 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $318.85 · official $314.21 · 2897 history records