Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:37:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

71
0x71d1…a991
sports · 109 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$83 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$538 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$231
Realized−$538
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses41 / 65
Est. fees paid−$101
Open positions3
Markets (closed)106 / 109
History coverage18d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 3 History 106 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$196
7 days−$277
14 days−$350
30 days−$538
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $119 $120 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $91 $94 +$2 (+3%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Under 35¢ 30¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Under 34¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $162 −$162 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $65 −$60 -92%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $125 −$9 -8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $150 −$123 -82%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $98 −$80 -82%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $115 +$45 +39%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $68 +$34 +51%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $68 −$16 -24%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $45 −$14 -30%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $73 −$5 -7%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $46 −$27 -58%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $361 +$108 +30%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $41 +$24 +59%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $72 +$88 +123%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $34 −$23 -69%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $31 +$18 +59%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $33 −$15 -46%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $83 +$48 +58%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $12 +$14 +113%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $18 −$3 -16%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $16 −$6 -37%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $35 −$7 -18%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $3 $0 -10%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$15 +71%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $25 −$8 -33%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $32 −$28 -86%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $14 −$10 -72%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $24 −$19 -77%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $8 −$1 -14%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $46 +$17 +37%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $82 +$35 +43%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $24 +$29 +122%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $47 +$11 +23%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $30 −$29 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $41 −$11 -26%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $22 +$5 +21%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $12 −$10 -88%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $28 −$20 -73%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $7 −$5 -64%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $24 −$18 -74%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $26 −$5 -20%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $41 +$13 +31%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $32 −$32 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $4 −$1 -16%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $8 +$3 +31%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $15 −$1 -6%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $26 −$4 -17%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $23 +$4 +17%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $26 +$6 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 91% −$556
other 6% +$25
crypto 3% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $24 19m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 50¢ $24 20m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 35¢ $20 23m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 29¢ $20 23m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 60¢ $43 32m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $70 42m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 29¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 2¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 28¢ $14 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 29¢ $26 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 50¢ $14 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 55¢ $26 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 13¢ $13 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 55¢ $13 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 27¢ $13 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 55¢ $13 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 31¢ $7 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 50¢ $6 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 31¢ $33 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 46¢ $32 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 57¢ $31 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 55¢ $32 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 57¢ $86 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 7¢ $26 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 27¢ $23 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 25¢ $19 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 46¢ $19 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 24¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 22¢ $9 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 5¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -14.9% -23.0% 36% 35% -18.7%
≤30d 106 -17.1% -25.0% 39% 32% -21.2%
≤90d 106 -17.1% -25.0% 39% 32% -21.2%
all 106 -17.1% -25.0% 39% 32% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.0% 32% -21.2%
10% ← realistic here -32.2% 23% -28.7%
15% -38.8% 19% -35.6%
20% -44.8% 14% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231.31 · official $231.31 (match) · 425 history records