Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:24:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71d1…57b7 crypto 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (218 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$89 (+9%) realized +$89 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate52%37W / 34L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day218.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$14
other 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (218 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -1.2% -10.6% 52% 32% -8.5%
≤30d 71 -1.2% -10.6% 52% 32% -8.5%
≤90d 71 -1.2% -10.6% 52% 32% -8.5%
all 71 -1.2% -10.6% 52% 32% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover218.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 32% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 30% -17.3%
15% -27.0% 27% -25.3%
20% -34.1% 21% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses37 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage1d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day218.0
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$21 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$8 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -54%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -91%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$19 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$5 -31%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$12 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$7 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$11 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$19 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$9 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$20 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$22 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$15 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$23 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$15 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$4 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$7 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $8 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $8 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 284 history records