Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:38:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
71 0x71d3…4e2a other 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$932 (+8%) realized +$310 · open +$622
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate72%33W / 13L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$2,342now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$302
7 days+$484
14 days+$472
30 days+$247
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$1,342
sports 11% +$5
world 6% +$33
crypto 4% −$249
economics 4% +$15
culture 2% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +16.4% +5.3% 67% 67% +2.5%
≤30d 37 +14.2% +3.3% 70% 65% -2.5%
≤90d 39 +14.8% +3.9% 72% 64% -1.6%
all 46 +14.1% +3.2% 72% 63% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.2% 63% -2.8%
10% -6.7% 50% -12.1%
15% -15.7% 28% -20.6%
20% -24.0% 17% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$82 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$2,342
Realized+$310
Unrealized+$622
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses33 / 13
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions4
Markets (closed)46 / 53
History coverage148d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 20¢ $500 $898 +$398 (+80%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ $517 $749 +$233 (+45%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $504 $494 −$10 (-2%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $201 +$28 +14%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $500 +$139 +28%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $129 +$67 +52%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $163 +$68 +42%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $110 +$53 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN Jun 21 $203 −$93 -46%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $189 −$186 -98%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $101 −$6 -6%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $151 −$71 -47%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $500 −$50 -10%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? A Jun 20 $152 +$89 +59%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $69 +$17 +24%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $101 +$24 +24%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $101 −$38 -37%
Brazil to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $201 +$49 +24%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $100 +$15 +14%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-1 Jun 19 $102 +$102 +100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$26 +26%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$60 +119%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$35 -35%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $118 +$184 +156%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $173 −$173 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $49 +$27 +56%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $100 +$18 +18%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$30 +30%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $100 +$40 +40%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $30 +$29 +97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$29 +29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $49 +$51 +105%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $63 +$27 +44%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $543 −$249 -46%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 02 $410 +$24 +6%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 08 $444 +$15 +4%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 08 $200 +$94 +47%
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Mar 18 $500 −$61 -12%
Will F1 win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $223 +$38 +17%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 27 $100 +$26 +26%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Feb 23 $1,010 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 23 $498 +$62 +12%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 23 $500 +$133 +27%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 12 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $201 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 54¢ $203 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 2h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $639 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $129 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 28¢ $102 40h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $163 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $110 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN SELL 26¢ $110 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $95 2d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $95 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $94 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 40¢ $72 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 40¢ $4 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $517 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $331 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $151 2d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 80¢ $69 3d
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Brazil 50¢ $63 3d
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 78¢ $101 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 80¢ $101 3d
Brazil to score first vs. Haiti? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 3d
Brazil to score first vs. Haiti? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 47¢ $203 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $201 3d
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,342.49 · official $2,542.49 · 281 history records