Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:27:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71d4…da9e crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$35 (-20%) realized −$51 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 35d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$15
crypto 25% −$32
world 18% +$2
finance 9% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -79.3% -81.3% 0% 0% -63.1%
≤30d 3 -79.3% -81.3% 0% 0% -63.1%
≤90d 9 -36.5% -42.6% 33% 33% -59.5%
all 9 -36.5% -42.6% 33% 33% -59.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.6% 33% -59.5%
10% -48.1% 22% -63.4%
15% -53.1% 11% -66.9%
20% -57.7% 11% -70.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage35d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 37¢ 38¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 29¢ 49¢ $15 $25 +$10 (+69%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 65¢ 77¢ $20 $23 +$4 (+19%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 24 $49 −$19 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 20 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 20 $1 $0 +20%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 20 $5 −$3 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.04 · official $94.25 (match) · 24 history records