Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:37:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71d9…19f8 weather 33 markets active 11h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$31 (+4%) realized −$4 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%10W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -12.9% -21.2% 33% 33% -2.6%
≤30d 30 -12.9% -21.2% 33% 33% -2.6%
≤90d 30 -12.9% -21.2% 33% 33% -2.6%
all 30 -12.9% -21.2% 33% 33% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 33% -2.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 33% -11.9%
15% -35.6% 33% -20.4%
20% -41.9% 27% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$17 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses10 / 20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage3d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Yes 16¢ 36¢ $19 $43 +$24 (+130%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? Yes 30¢ 42¢ $22 $31 +$9 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? No 83¢ 98¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$5 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$53 +269%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? Jun 14 $15 +$20 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? Jun 14 $80 +$39 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $42 +$64 +154%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $61 −$44 -72%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $61 −$51 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 −$5 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $34 +$100 +299%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $8 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $39 −$38 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $31 +$27 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +45%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $8 +$15 +191%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $23 +$29 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $11 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $45 −$44 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 12h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 83¢ $7 12h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $13 14h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 14h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 20h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 44¢ $21 25h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 25h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $80 44h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 44h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 44h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? SELL Yes 98¢ $89 45h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? SELL Yes 12¢ $15 46h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $29 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 41¢ $17 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? SELL Yes 17¢ $17 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 41¢ $35 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 41¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.31 · official $82.31 (match) · 72 history records