Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:30:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71dc…3711 crypto 465 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$98 (-2%) realized −$98 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate62%286W / 174L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days−$179
14 days−$173
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$68
sports 22% −$66
other 7% −$18
world 1% +$8
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 -41.0% -46.6% 35% 28% -21.4%
≤30d 210 -10.7% -19.2% 55% 44% -16.1%
≤90d 460 -4.5% -13.6% 62% 41% -12.4%
all 460 -4.5% -13.6% 62% 41% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 41% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 28% -20.8%
15% -29.4% 19% -28.4%
20% -36.3% 11% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses286 / 174
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)460 / 465
History coverage63d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 460 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $33 +$1 +4%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $64 −$11 -16%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $120 −$120 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $2 +$1 +54%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4 −$2 -51%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $101 +$19 +18%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $97 +$9 +9%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $89 +$7 +8%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $74 +$16 +21%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $60 +$6 +11%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $6 +$1 +20%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $4 +$2 +39%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $4 −$3 -64%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$12 +25%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $2 +$2 +81%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1 +$1 +70%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $3 −$2 -75%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) AND United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $4 $0 +12%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $3 $0 +3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $46 −$3 -6%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $15 −$4 -27%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $154 −$14 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +40%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 −$6 -58%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1 $0 +44%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +98%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 AND Iraq vs. No Jun 17 $5 +$3 +63%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +68%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 -22%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $1 $0 -29%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 -4%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $4 $0 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $35 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 95¢ $33 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $33 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 60¢ $20 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 40¢ $20 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $40 4h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $3 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $3 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 64¢ $2 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 87¢ $120 6h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $120 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 7h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $101 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 99¢ $106 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 91¢ $93 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 77¢ $4 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $97 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 92¢ $89 10h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $89 10h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $74 21h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 83¢ $6 22h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 94¢ $6 22h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $2 23h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 21¢ $2 23h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $3 24h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 90¢ $60 24h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $4 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 94¢ $4 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $2 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1717 history records