Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:27:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

71
0x71dd…d61c
politics · 505 markets active 5d ago
7.5score
+$63,582 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$63,322 · open +$270
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
✓ In copytrade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$21,879
Realized+$63,322
Unrealized+$270
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses237 / 262
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)499 / 505
History coverage589d
Avg bet$985
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 6 History 499 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$26
14 days+$26
30 days+$420
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $19,660 $19,870 +$210 (+1%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 80¢ 84¢ $1,840 $1,920 +$80 (+4%)
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 37¢ $75 $55 −$20 (-26%)
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026? No 55¢ 56¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-22%)
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 07 $271 +$26 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $500 +$31 +6%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 16 $154 +$215 +140%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? May 15 $36 −$6 -18%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 14 $18,002 +$52 +0%
Will Chuck Schumer vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal May 14 $108 +$12 +11%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30? May 14 $129 +$5 +4%
Will Elizabeth Warren vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Fede May 14 $480 +$31 +6%
Will Bernie Sanders vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federa May 14 $940 +$54 +6%
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? May 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the US lose between 0 and 50k jobs in April? May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me May 10 $132 −$105 -79%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Apr 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $19,827 +$343 +2%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? Apr 24 $137 +$26 +19%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in February? Apr 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the 2026 State of the Union have between 35M and 37M viewers? Apr 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Apr 17 $10 −$9 -90%
Will Trump say "Black" or "Hispanic" during the 2026 State of the Unio Apr 17 $300 −$300 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Apr 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.7% in February? Apr 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Apr 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28? Apr 17 $1,000 −$253 -25%
Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet befor Apr 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Apr 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Tim Walz charged by March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $50 +$25 +50%
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar) Mar 29 $54 +$46 +85%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 18 $36,096 +$2,358 +6%
Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting? Mar 18 $1,619 +$443 +27%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Mar 06 $12 +$83 +698%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $125 −$100 -80%
Will the 2026 State of the Union have less than 35M viewers? Feb 28 $210 +$711 +339%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $50 −$9 -18%
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? Feb 05 $157 +$704 +448%
Will Trump say "Midterm Election" during the Detroit speech on Tuesday Feb 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump say "Fuck" or "Fucking" or "Fucked" in January? Feb 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Martin Luther King" in January? Feb 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump talk to Kaja Kallas in January? Feb 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference? Feb 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? Feb 01 $40 −$17 -43%
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? Feb 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by January 31? Feb 01 $307 −$307 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Feb 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Ego" in January? Feb 01 $1 +$1 +186%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $14,299 +$1,911 +13%
Will the January 2026 FOMC decision result in no change with <2 dissen Jan 28 $3 +$4 +126%
Will Silver hit 100 or Bitcoin hit 100k first? Jan 26 $20 +$32 +158%
Will Trump say "Jerome Too Late Powell" in January? Jan 21 $140 +$127 +90%
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Democrats flip Republicans by March 31? Jan 18 $500 +$42 +8%
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? Jan 15 $1,099 +$23 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 47% +$12,733
politics 35% +$63,652
other 13% −$11,433
world 3% +$178
finance 1% +$93
crypto 0% −$1,041
tech 0% −$299
weather 0% +$190
sports 0% −$538
culture 0% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 98¢ $156 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $315 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $114 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $364 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $205 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $91 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $492 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $234 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $578 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $104 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $55 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $278 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $492 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $354 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $364 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $364 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $364 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $62 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $364 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $114 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $364 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $205 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $91 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $492 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $234 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $111 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $55 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $492 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $282 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $364 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +9.5% -1.0% 100% 0% -1.0%
≤30d 9 +18.4% +7.1% 89% 22% -7.7%
≤90d 29 -32.4% -38.8% 48% 21% -6.4%
all 499 -3.6% -12.7% 47% 29% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 29% +2.5%
10% -21.1% 22% -7.3%
15% -28.7% 20% -16.3%
20% -35.7% 19% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,879.21 · official $21,878.46 (match) · 2029 history records