Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:01:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71df…9aa0 sports 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate38%31W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day36.8pace
Fees−$242est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$396
14 days−$62
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$287
other 23% +$206
world 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -1.2% -10.6% 33% 4% -12.4%
≤30d 82 +0.3% -9.2% 38% 6% -9.9%
≤90d 82 +0.3% -9.2% 38% 6% -9.9%
all 82 +0.3% -9.2% 38% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 6% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 5% -18.5%
15% -25.8% 4% -26.4%
20% -33.1% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$12 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses31 / 51
Est. fees paid−$242
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 82
History coverage8d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day36.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $262 $0 -0%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 22 $390 −$3 -1%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $255 −$4 -2%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $70 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $2 $0 -0%
Saudi Arabia to win the second half? Jun 21 $481 −$10 -2%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $141 −$5 -4%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $255 −$9 -3%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 21 $4 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $220 −$4 -2%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 21 $228 $0 -0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $18 $0 -0%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $22 −$1 -2%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $320 +$29 +9%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 21 $164 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 20 $30 +$4 +13%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $310 −$2 -1%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $33 $0 -0%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $448 +$7 +2%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $345 −$3 -1%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $185 $0 -0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 -2%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $2 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 19 $205 $0 -0%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $77 −$3 -4%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $45 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 19 $122 $0 -0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 19 $174 −$2 -1%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 19 $6 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $70 $0 -0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 19 $260 −$10 -4%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 19 $471 +$1 +0%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $3 $0 +2%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $7 $0 +2%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 19 $203 +$5 +2%
United States to score first vs. Australia? Jun 19 $119 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 19 $285 $0 -0%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 19 $63 +$2 +4%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 19 $3 $0 +2%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $255 −$5 -2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $314 $0 -0%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $290 +$1 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 18 $217 −$11 -5%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $240 $0 -0%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr Jun 17 $170 −$18 -11%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 17 $185 $0 -0%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $260 −$30 -12%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 17 $76 +$1 +1%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 17 $25 $0 -0%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $99 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series SELL Walczaki 61¢ $195 36m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series SELL Walczaki 61¢ $14 36m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series SELL Walczaki 61¢ $4 40m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series SELL Walczaki 61¢ $15 48m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series SELL Walczaki 61¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series SELL Walczaki 61¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series SELL Walczaki 61¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series SELL Walczaki 61¢ $17 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 61¢ $262 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL No 78¢ $387 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 78¢ $390 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 SELL Over 51¢ $251 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $255 1h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 SELL Under 14¢ $0 2h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 SELL Under 14¢ $70 2h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Under 14¢ $70 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 5h
Saudi Arabia to win the second half? SELL No 94¢ $471 14h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 84¢ $122 15h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL No 50¢ $246 18h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $255 20h
Saudi Arabia to win the second half? BUY No 96¢ $481 21h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 87¢ $14 22h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners SELL Under 45¢ $4 22h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Under 45¢ $4 22h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 87¢ $141 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 44¢ $216 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 44¢ $220 23h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals SELL No 91¢ $173 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 324 history records