Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:55:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71e5…d10b politics 158 markets active 36d ago coverage 382d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 382d only
! high turnover
Total PnL −$175,828 (-32%) realized −$175,828 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%80W / 79L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,456per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$155
7 days−$155
14 days−$155
30 days−$155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$76,069
other 20% +$363
world 17% −$25,580
tech 6% +$5,344
economics 4% −$3,846
crypto 4% −$6,188
sports 1% +$56
culture 0% +$796
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 4 -89.2% -90.2% 0% 0% -93.4%
all 159 +32.8% +20.1% 50% 39% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.1% 39% -27.3%
10% ← realistic here +8.7% 28% -34.2%
15% -1.8% 23% -40.6%
20% -11.5% 18% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -93% too few recent
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$3,982) neutral
Persistence
early -9% → late +74% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
16.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$868 vs −$2,212 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

382d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$175,828
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses80 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)159 / 158
History coverage382d ⚠
Avg bet$3,456
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 159 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 29 $155 −$155 -100%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $2,960 −$2,552 -86%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $5,800 −$5,800 -100%
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? Apr 01 $1,100 −$776 -70%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Feb 07 $536 +$150 +28%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 26 $5,536 +$1,327 +24%
Will Taylor Swift perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Jan 24 $5 +$7 +142%
Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025? Jan 02 $10 +$420 +4326%
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025? Jan 02 $2,609 +$4,124 +158%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Nov 23 $3,960 −$3,960 -100%
2025 September second hottest on record? Nov 23 $540 +$3,460 +641%
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? Oct 08 $4,830 −$4,830 -100%
Will Keir Starmer win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 07 $53 −$53 -100%
Will J.D. Vance be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025? Oct 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Oct 04 $66 +$164 +250%
Will Ursula von der Leyen win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 04 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 3-5? Oct 02 $344 −$344 -100%
US government shutdown in 2025? Oct 01 $5,035 +$2,274 +45%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in September? Oct 01 $99 +$201 +203%
US government shutdown by October 1? Sep 30 $13,759 −$588 -4%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 30 $492 +$108 +22%
Will Eric Adams win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 28 $2,001 −$1,840 -92%
Will Andrew Cuomo drop out first? Sep 28 $214 −$214 -100%
Will Eric Adams drop out by October 15? Sep 28 $1,600 −$1,600 -100%
Will Eric Adams drop out by September 30? Sep 28 $5,027 −$4,611 -92%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 26 $6,600 −$6,599 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in September? Sep 24 $1,000 +$900 +90%
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2025? Sep 21 $710 +$104 +15%
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025? Sep 19 $77 +$48 +62%
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025? Sep 19 $5,552 +$2,082 +38%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? Sep 19 $4,779 −$2,863 -60%
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? Sep 19 $4,520 −$3,170 -70%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Sep 18 $2,739 +$632 +23%
Will Justin Bieber's album "SWAG II" debut at #1 in its first week? Sep 17 $83 +$17 +20%
Will The Pitt win the Emmy for Outstanding Drama Series? Sep 15 $290 +$475 +164%
Will Eric Adams drop out by September 15? Sep 13 $980 −$234 -24%
Will Ethereum dip to $4200 in September? Sep 12 $1,160 −$1,160 -100%
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo? Sep 12 $1,220 +$540 +44%
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026? Sep 12 $530 −$180 -34%
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025? Sep 11 $1,260 −$476 -38%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 11 $7,020 −$444 -6%
Fact Check: Is the suspect transgender? Sep 10 $2,906 +$315 +11%
Will Trump send the national guard to Chicago? Sep 10 $280 −$280 -100%
Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway? Sep 09 $1,660 +$340 +20%
OpenAI social app in 2025? Sep 07 $2,242 −$2,241 -100%
Japan prime minister Ishiba out by September 30? Sep 07 $3,925 +$55 +1%
Will Eric Adams drop out by Friday? Sep 06 $850 +$150 +18%
Will Eric Adams drop out? Sep 05 $2,500 +$1,651 +66%
Trump renames Department of Defense by September 30? Sep 05 $2,733 +$27 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 05 $175 +$24 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $96 35d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $312 35d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $2,960 57d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 29¢ $3,263 68d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 29¢ $1,225 68d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 68d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 29¢ $52 68d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 68d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 68d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 68d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 29¢ $1,162 68d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? SELL No 57¢ $237 141d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? SELL No 57¢ $140 141d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? SELL No 57¢ $6 141d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? SELL No 57¢ $28 141d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? SELL No 57¢ $28 141d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? SELL No 57¢ $84 141d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? SELL No 57¢ $17 141d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? SELL No 57¢ $28 141d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? SELL No 57¢ $28 141d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? SELL No 57¢ $88 141d
US government shutdown Saturday? SELL Yes 75¢ $5,773 154d
US government shutdown Saturday? SELL Yes 76¢ $39 154d
US government shutdown Saturday? SELL Yes 76¢ $8 154d
US government shutdown Saturday? SELL Yes 76¢ $57 154d
US government shutdown Saturday? SELL Yes 76¢ $6 154d
US government shutdown Saturday? SELL Yes 76¢ $115 154d
US government shutdown Saturday? SELL Yes 76¢ $3 154d
US government shutdown Saturday? SELL Yes 76¢ $6 154d
US government shutdown Saturday? SELL Yes 76¢ $6 154d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records