Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:22:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71e6…4ef3 sports 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$716 (-9%) realized −$714 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%20W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$675
14 days−$910
30 days−$910
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$74
sports 40% −$1,044
crypto 1% +$60
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -11.0% -19.4% 45% 45% -14.9%
≤30d 45 -16.6% -24.6% 44% 44% -15.1%
≤90d 45 -16.6% -24.6% 44% 44% -15.1%
all 45 -16.6% -24.6% 44% 44% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 44% -15.1%
10% -31.8% 38% -23.3%
15% -38.4% 27% -30.7%
20% -44.4% 13% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$103 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$714
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses20 / 25
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage8d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 57¢ 54¢ $36 $34 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $164 −$33 -20%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $95 −$63 -66%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 +$81 +158%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $55 −$4 -7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $35 +$17 +48%
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 22 $10 +$25 +250%
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $303 −$303 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$2 -10%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $101 +$20 +19%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$63 -62%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 +$20 +20%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $33 +$5 +15%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $352 +$153 +44%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 +$23 +45%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$60 +59%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -75%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $152 +$79 +52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $81 +$52 +65%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$107 +105%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $516 −$446 -86%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $403 −$400 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $403 +$110 +27%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$9 -18%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 +$91 +45%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $605 +$196 +32%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $122 −$93 -76%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$38 +38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $837 +$211 +25%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $241 −$90 -37%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $404 +$159 +39%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$49 -49%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $806 −$525 -65%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$44 -86%
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$3 -60%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $707 +$164 +23%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 +$53 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $36 41m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $32 1h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $32 1h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $95 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 60¢ $95 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 82¢ $132 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $131 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 29¢ $51 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $55 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $35 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $5 3d
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) BUY Uruguay 9¢ $10 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $303 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 66¢ $121 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 27¢ $38 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 67¢ $121 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 55¢ $101 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 3d
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $51 3d
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 70¢ $34 3d
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 70¢ $4 3d
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $33 3d
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 61¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.79 · official $33.79 (match) · 98 history records