trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 50% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -1.6% | -11.0% | 43% | 0% | -10.3% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -1.6% | -11.0% | 43% | 0% | -10.3% |
| all | 20 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 60% | 10% | -8.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.0% | 10% | -8.8% |
| 10% | -17.7% | 0% | -17.5% |
| 15% | -25.6% | 0% | -25.5% |
| 20% | -32.9% | 0% | -32.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 5¢ | 4¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-14%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 20 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 19 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 18 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | May 26 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 25 | $20 | $0 | +1% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 24 | $19 | −$2 | -13% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? | Dec 18 | $1 | $0 | -42% |
| Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Jun 27 | $14 | +$1 | +8% |
| Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? | Apr 14 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio | Apr 14 | $10 | +$2 | +22% |
| Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 13 | $1 | $0 | +14% |
| Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Apr 13 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? | Apr 11 | $6 | $0 | +7% |
| Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? | Apr 08 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? | Mar 23 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? | Mar 15 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 14? | Mar 14 | $10 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 13 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 33-34°F on February 20? | Mar 04 | $10 | +$1 | +6% |