Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:08:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71e9…04ad crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$188 (-12%) realized −$188 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,205
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-62.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -59.0% -62.9% 20% 20% -80.1%
≤30d 10 -59.0% -62.9% 20% 20% -80.1%
≤90d 10 -59.0% -62.9% 20% 20% -80.1%
all 10 -59.0% -62.9% 20% 20% -80.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.9% 20% -80.1%
10% -66.5% 20% -82.0%
15% -69.7% 20% -83.8%
20% -72.7% 20% -85.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -78% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -78% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$164 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$188
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage6d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $485 −$464 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $367 −$367 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $179 −$85 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $108 −$108 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$33 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $83 +$77 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $85 −$85 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $485 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $123 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $94 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $94 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $85 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $85 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $55 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $53 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $160 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $83 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $52 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $53 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $85 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records