Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:15:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71f2…ee56 sports 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized −$15 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate45%34W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$108
14 days−$83
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$42
other 10% +$61
world 1% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -53.3% -57.7% 40% 0% -44.3%
≤30d 9 -26.4% -33.4% 56% 33% -27.4%
≤90d 60 -15.8% -23.8% 43% 28% -17.2%
all 75 -10.9% -19.4% 45% 33% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 33% -10.2%
10% -27.1% 29% -18.8%
15% -34.2% 25% -26.7%
20% -40.6% 20% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$20 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses34 / 41
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 76
History coverage123d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France leading at halftime? Yes 58¢ 100¢ $29 $50 +$21 (+72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $21 −$21 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $47 +$4 +8%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $95 −$74 -78%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $97 +$4 +4%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $1 +$1 +77%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $75 +$16 +21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $60 +$10 +17%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -87%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner May 16 $29 −$29 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs Paper Rex - Map 3 Winner May 16 $22 +$6 +29%
Valorant: Global Esports vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 16 $5 −$5 -89%
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs May 15 $3 −$2 -91%
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner May 15 $37 −$35 -93%
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Apr 29 $81 −$81 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: GIANTX vs Fnatic - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $4 −$3 -67%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs LOUD - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: GIANTX vs Fnatic - Map 1 Winner Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North Americ Apr 29 $17 −$17 -98%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 1 Winner Apr 28 $21 −$4 -19%
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 23 $83 −$1 -1%
Valorant: GIANTX vs Fnatic (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Apr 23 $81 +$2 +2%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 22 $51 +$44 +86%
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Pcific Esports - Map 2 Winner Apr 22 $18 −$6 -31%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Team Liquid - Map 2 Winner Apr 22 $5 $0 -0%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Team Liquid - Map 1 Winner Apr 22 $25 +$5 +19%
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Pcific Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Apr 22 $65 $0 +0%
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Pcific Esports - Map 1 Winner Apr 22 $6 $0 +3%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 2 Win Apr 22 $7 −$2 -23%
Valorant: All Gamers vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Apr 22 $25 −$18 -70%
Valorant: NRG vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega Apr 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Valorant: DNSTY vs Barça eSports - Map 2 Winner Apr 21 $10 −$2 -21%
Valorant: ZETA DIVISION vs DetonatioN FocusMe - Map 1 Winner Apr 19 $4 +$13 +359%
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Team Envy (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha Apr 18 $44 −$20 -46%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Evil Geniuses - Map 2 Winner Apr 18 $4 −$1 -28%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Evil Geniuses - Map 1 Winner Apr 18 $189 +$75 +40%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Apr 18 $31 +$8 +27%
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Team Envy - Map 1 Winner Apr 17 $46 +$30 +65%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 17 $71 −$27 -38%
Valorant: Pcific Esports vs Fnatic - Map 1 Winner Apr 17 $36 +$27 +75%
Valorant: Pcific Esports vs Fnatic (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Apr 17 $4 +$2 +49%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Liquid - Map 1 Winner Apr 17 $43 +$97 +226%
Valorant: Team Secret vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha Apr 17 $65 $0 +0%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: ACE Ma Apr 17 $104 +$6 +5%
Valorant: 9z Team vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Apr 17 $18 −$8 -45%
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 16 $40 +$29 +73%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 16 $58 +$5 +8%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group Omega Apr 16 $142 −$101 -71%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 15 $20 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $29 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $21 16h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 81¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 75¢ $47 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 5d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Paper Rex 16¢ $21 5d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 69¢ $95 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 97¢ $92 6d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London SELL EDward Gaming 7¢ $6 6d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 6¢ $5 6d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Team Vitality 8¢ $2 7d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 4¢ $1 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $75 9d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 9d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 85¢ $60 9d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Heretics 49¢ $29 41d
Valorant: Global Esports vs Paper Rex - Map 3 Winner SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $29 41d
Valorant: Global Esports vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Playoffs SELL Global Esports 1¢ $1 41d
Valorant: Global Esports vs Paper Rex - Map 3 Winner BUY Paper Rex 77¢ $22 41d
Valorant: Global Esports vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Pacific Playoffs BUY Global Esports 10¢ $5 41d
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs SELL T1 4¢ $0 42d
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs BUY T1 43¢ $3 42d
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL Paper Rex 4¢ $3 42d
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 52¢ $37 42d
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North Americ BUY FlyQuest 40¢ $17 58d
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 1 Winner SELL Shopify Rebellion Black 44¢ $17 58d
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 1 Winner BUY Shopify Rebellion Black 53¢ $21 58d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs LOUD - Map 2 Winner BUY LOUD 13¢ $20 62d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha BUY LOUD 3¢ $5 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.98 · official $49.98 (match) · 219 history records