Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:32:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
71 0x71f5…4cce sports 244 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$197 (+0%) realized +$451 · open −$254
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%119W / 108L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day49.6pace
Fees−$503est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,029now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$987
7 days+$689
14 days+$689
30 days+$689
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$182
other 9% +$288
culture 1% +$35
world 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 199 +5.2% -4.8% 54% 45% -7.9%
≤30d 199 +5.2% -4.8% 54% 45% -7.9%
≤90d 227 +4.6% -5.4% 52% 44% -8.7%
all 227 +4.6% -5.4% 52% 44% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 44% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 33% -17.4%
15% -22.7% 23% -25.4%
20% -30.3% 19% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$74 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$1,029
Realized+$451
Unrealized−$254
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses119 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$503
Open positions17
Markets (closed)227 / 244
History coverage39d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day49.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 227 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Dayana Yastremska 64¢ 50¢ $660 $522 −$138 (-21%)
Set 1 Winner: Boisson vs Yastremska Yastremska 70¢ 50¢ $252 $182 −$70 (-28%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Sri Lanka 25¢ 22¢ $133 $112 −$21 (-16%)
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jakub Mensik 31¢ 12¢ $176 $66 −$111 (-63%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Ireland 5¢ 4¢ $68 $61 −$7 (-10%)
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi Malawi 9¢ 6¢ $36 $27 −$9 (-24%)
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Cameron Norrie 48¢ 45¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-6%)
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Adrian Mannarino 59¢ 88¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+50%)
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Nightblood Gaming 17¢ 19¢ $8 $10 +$1 (+12%)
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Kevin Borjas 19¢ 18¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-10%)
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Kiwoom Heroes 20¢ 36¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+80%)
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherweight, Main Card) Melsik Baghdasaryan 24¢ 26¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage ROSE 41¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
British Columbia Lions vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats Hamilton Tiger-Cats 16¢ 44¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+178%)
Will Coco Gauff be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+29%)
Overwatch: ENTER FORCE.36 vs Please Not Hero Ban (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage Please Not Hero Ban 31¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$12 (-98%)
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Evil Geniuses Academy 45¢ 48¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Overwatch: REVATI vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage REVATI 23¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set 1 Winner: Rublev vs Hurkacz Jun 16 $14 +$9 +67%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $17 −$6 -32%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $1 +$4 +426%
Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs Fucsovics Jun 16 $26 +$11 +44%
Fonseca vs. Hanfmann: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Khachanov vs Quinn Jun 16 $247 +$86 +35%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $23 +$53 +230%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 +$9 +29%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $187 +$16 +9%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $39 −$12 -30%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $104 +$81 +78%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 16 $2 +$3 +133%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 16 $10 +$3 +33%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 16 $59 −$53 -90%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $85 +$19 +23%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $18 −$17 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 16 $131 +$218 +167%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $60 −$17 -29%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $190 +$39 +21%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $172 +$53 +31%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $28 +$5 +18%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $63 +$3 +4%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $366 −$281 -77%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 16 $183 +$87 +47%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $62 −$58 -94%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $44 +$30 +67%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 16 $60 −$10 -17%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $53 −$23 -43%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $183 +$84 +46%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 16 $111 +$1 +1%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $90 −$2 -2%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 16 $159 +$11 +7%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 16 $18 +$7 +39%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 16 $149 +$11 +8%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $243 +$90 +37%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $186 +$13 +7%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $634 −$145 -23%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5 Jun 16 $23 +$2 +8%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $65 −$64 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $65 −$21 -32%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $27 +$48 +180%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) Jun 16 $76 −$73 -96%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 177.5 Jun 16 $89 +$19 +22%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $462 +$38 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 1¢ $3 9m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 74¢ $7 12m
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 51¢ $3 12m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 15¢ $4 19m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 17¢ $10 19m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 16¢ $5 20m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 18¢ $11 20m
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 51¢ $3 21m
Overwatch: ENTER FORCE.36 vs Please Not Hero Ban (BO3) - OCS Japan Sta BUY Please Not Hero Ban 31¢ $11 41m
Overwatch: ENTER FORCE.36 vs Please Not Hero Ban (BO3) - OCS Japan Sta BUY Please Not Hero Ban 34¢ $2 41m
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 66¢ $100 47m
Set 1 Winner: Rublev vs Hurkacz BUY Hurkacz 59¢ $14 1h
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 51¢ $6 1h
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 51¢ $5 1h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 24¢ $14 1h
Fonseca vs. Hanfmann: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 42¢ $3 1h
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 51¢ $5 1h
Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs Fucsovics BUY Nakashima 69¢ $26 2h
Overwatch: REVATI vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage BUY REVATI 2¢ $0 2h
Overwatch: REVATI vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage BUY REVATI 2¢ $0 2h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY Nightblood Gaming 17¢ $8 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 5¢ $3 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 5¢ $1 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 5¢ $5 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 5¢ $3 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 5¢ $5 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 5¢ $3 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 5¢ $5 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 5¢ $3 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 5¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,029.40 · official $1,029.27 (match) · 2128 history records