Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:38:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
71 0x71fb…163f crypto 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$5,296 (+2%) realized +$3,469 · open +$158
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate70%71W / 30L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,118per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$948est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$8,329now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7,465
7 days+$2,509
14 days+$3,538
30 days+$2,355
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$2,493
sports 18% +$5,089
world 5% +$1,038
other 0% −$85
politics 0% +$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +0.1% -9.5% 88% 38% -5.4%
≤30d 57 -1.3% -10.7% 82% 33% -7.7%
≤90d 66 +0.0% -9.5% 80% 35% -6.8%
all 101 +3.3% -6.5% 70% 38% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 38% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 26% -16.4%
15% -23.6% 23% -24.4%
20% -31.1% 18% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$2,999) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$469 vs −$994 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$8,329
Realized+$3,469
Unrealized+$158
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses71 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$948
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage592d
Avg bet$2,118
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Up 92¢ 94¢ $8,171 $8,329 +$158 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $2,799 $0 −$2,799 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $3,725 $0 −$3,725 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $6,400 $0 −$6,400 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $1,490 $0 −$1,490 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 68¢ 0¢ $1,632 $0 −$1,632 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $560 $0 −$560 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $892 +$594 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $1,831 +$354 +19%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $17,546 +$6,517 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6PM ET Jun 10 $4,904 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $4,191 −$4,191 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $2,921 +$315 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 10 $2,950 +$907 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 10 $2,805 −$2,799 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 10 $2,707 +$93 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 10 $2,509 +$123 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $2,505 +$71 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 09 $2,408 +$112 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 09 $2,018 +$270 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 09 $2,001 +$19 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 09 $2,008 +$111 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 06 $1,668 +$73 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 06 $3,925 +$376 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 06 $3,013 +$180 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 06 $3,608 +$110 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 06 $3,418 +$268 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 06 $3,307 +$90 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 06 $3,203 +$39 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 06 $3,009 +$287 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 06 $2,810 +$140 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 06 $2,426 +$410 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 06 $2,308 +$117 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 06 $1,855 +$164 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 06 $2,009 +$130 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 06 $1,905 +$67 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 06 $565 −$560 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 06 $550 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 06 $456 +$103 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 06 $403 +$45 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 06 $2,343 −$1,960 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 06 $2,210 +$143 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 06 $284 +$75 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 06 $6,473 −$6,400 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 06 $6,420 +$281 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 06 $6,029 +$427 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 06 $5,022 +$310 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 06 $5,040 +$606 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 06 $2,016 +$235 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 06 $3,018 +$277 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 06 $2,792 +$1,832 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12PM ET Jun 06 $3,472 −$2,586 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 06 $975 +$549 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 06 $1,207 +$98 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 06 $1,035 +$972 +94%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,648 −$1,632 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 91¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 92¢ $6,013 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 91¢ $879 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 91¢ $1,314 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $206 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $108 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $118 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $167 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $115 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $62 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $605 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $609 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $254 5h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 63¢ $4,962 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4,908 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4,904 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,328.88 · official $8,328.88 (match) · 1258 history records