Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:30:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
71 0x71ff…d1af crypto 316 markets active 1d ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$217 (-5%) realized −$217 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate54%170W / 146L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day29.1pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$32
14 days−$135
30 days−$359
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$356
other 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -5.9% -14.9% 60% 46% -15.6%
≤30d 316 -4.3% -13.4% 54% 42% -16.9%
≤90d 316 -4.3% -13.4% 54% 42% -16.9%
all 316 -4.3% -13.4% 54% 42% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 42% -16.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 34% -24.8%
15% -29.2% 25% -32.1%
20% -36.2% 19% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$217
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses170 / 146
Open positions0
Markets (closed)316 / 316
History coverage24d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day29.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 316 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $28 −$17 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $25 −$9 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$16 +263%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$8 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$8 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $22 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$8 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$5 -30%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$2 +25%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -89%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$5 -81%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +28%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$4 +75%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 06 $7 −$2 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $6 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $7 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $17 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 973 history records