Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:36:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7200…9299 sports 561 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$21,834 (-3%) realized −$17,952 · open −$3,882
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate74%277W / 97L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,297per market
Trades / day43.1pace
Fees−$10,965est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$11,874now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$88,193
7 days−$87,975
14 days−$86,657
30 days−$60,468
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$23,483
other 3% −$3,943
crypto 0% +$470
culture 0% +$1
world 0% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -32.5% -39.0% 53% 7% -54.5%
≤30d 139 -3.1% -12.3% 66% 24% -22.4%
≤90d 374 +10.8% +0.2% 74% 33% -12.5%
all 374 +10.8% +0.2% 74% 33% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.2% 33% -12.5%
10% -9.4% 27% -20.8%
15% ← realistic here -18.1% 24% -28.5%
20% -26.2% 20% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$990) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$284 vs −$1,070 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$11,874
Realized−$17,952
Unrealized−$3,882
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses277 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$10,965
Open positions186
Markets (closed)374 / 561
History coverage71d ⚠
Avg bet$1,297
Trades / day43.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 186 History 374 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Noah Okafor: 3+ goals No 99¢ 89¢ $692 $621 −$71 (-10%)
Jovo Lukić: 3+ goals No 99¢ 56¢ $715 $401 −$314 (-44%)
Brian Gutiérrez: 3+ goals No 99¢ 54¢ $637 $344 −$293 (-46%)
Harry Kane: 1+ assists No 85¢ 92¢ $269 $291 +$22 (+8%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals No 94¢ 93¢ $285 $281 −$4 (-1%)
Fiston Mayele: 3+ goals No 99¢ 99¢ $261 $262 +$1 (+0%)
Johan Manzambi: 3+ goals No 98¢ 75¢ $250 $193 −$58 (-23%)
Theo Bongonda: 2+ goals No 98¢ 88¢ $200 $179 −$21 (-10%)
Ismael Díaz: 3+ goals No 99¢ 96¢ $167 $162 −$5 (-3%)
Iñaki Williams: 3+ goals No 99¢ 96¢ $167 $162 −$5 (-3%)
Brandon Thomas-Asante: 3+ goals No 99¢ 96¢ $167 $162 −$5 (-3%)
Kwasi Sibo: 2+ goals No 99¢ 96¢ $160 $155 −$5 (-3%)
Antoine Semenyo: 3+ goals No 99¢ 96¢ $153 $149 −$5 (-3%)
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) Senegal 96¢ 96¢ $144 $145 +$1 (+0%)
Deiver Machado: 2+ goals No 98¢ 96¢ $146 $143 −$3 (-2%)
Cecilio Waterman: 3+ goals No 99¢ 96¢ $144 $139 −$4 (-3%)
Adalberto Carrasquilla: 2+ goals No 98¢ 96¢ $134 $132 −$3 (-2%)
José Fajardo: 3+ goals No 99¢ 90¢ $144 $131 −$13 (-9%)
Yusuf Abdurisag: 2+ goals No 98¢ 70¢ $180 $129 −$52 (-29%)
Christian Fassnacht: 3+ goals No 97¢ 92¢ $131 $123 −$8 (-6%)
Gaël Kakuta: 2+ goals No 99¢ 99¢ $116 $116 +$1 (+1%)
Alberto Quintero: 2+ goals No 98¢ 96¢ $116 $114 −$3 (-2%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 46¢ $117 $113 −$4 (-3%)
Mohammed Muntari: 3+ goals No 99¢ 52¢ $213 $113 −$100 (-47%)
Prince Adu Kwabena: 3+ goals No 99¢ 71¢ $153 $110 −$43 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Florian Grillitsch: 2+ goals Jun 17 $43 +$1 +1%
Paul Wanner: 3+ goals Jun 17 $98 +$1 +1%
Mohammad Ratib: 2+ goals Jun 17 $70 +$1 +1%
Romano Schmid: 3+ goals Jun 17 $36 $0 +1%
Ali Olwan: 3+ goals Jun 17 $246 +$2 +1%
Alessandro Schöpf: 3+ goals Jun 17 $63 +$1 +2%
Mousa Ta'mari: 3+ goals Jun 17 $223 +$1 +1%
Patrick Wimmer: 3+ goals Jun 17 $296 +$2 +1%
Ali Azaizeh: 3+ goals Jun 17 $362 +$2 +0%
Carney Chukwuemeka: 3+ goals Jun 17 $14 $0 +1%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 17 $338 +$180 +53%
Riyad Mahrez: 3+ goals Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ goals Jun 17 $57 +$1 +2%
Amine Gouiri: 3+ goals Jun 17 $87 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 17 $4,953 +$47 +1%
Knicks vs. 76ers Jun 17 $15 −$5 -34%
Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Jun 17 $86 −$86 -100%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 17 $121 −$121 -100%
Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $118 −$118 -100%
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals Jun 17 $183 −$183 -100%
Tobias Harris: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 17 $151 −$151 -100%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5 Jun 17 $363 −$163 -45%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $163 −$163 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 17 $141 −$141 -100%
Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $234 −$129 -55%
Brandon Ingram: Rebounds O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Brandon Ingram: Assists O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-14.5) Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Duncan Robinson: Points O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Duncan Robinson: Assists O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Tobias Harris: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Austin Reaves: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 17 $74 −$64 -86%
Josh Hart: Points O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Josh Hart: Assists O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $787 −$487 -62%
Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3,533 −$786 -22%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 17 $619 −$619 -100%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 17 $728 −$728 -100%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $990 −$929 -94%
Joel Embiid: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 17 $762 −$726 -95%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) Jun 17 $892 −$892 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 Jun 17 $273 −$273 -100%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 17 $1,721 −$1,602 -93%
Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3,542 −$1,572 -44%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Jun 17 $6,710 −$1,696 -25%
Canadiens vs. Sabres Jun 17 $3,879 −$2,459 -63%
Avalanche vs. Wild Jun 17 $2,195 −$2,045 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lawrence Shankland: 2+ goals BUY No 92¢ $28 27m
Isidro Pitta: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $5 33m
Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals BUY No 97¢ $10 51m
Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals BUY No 97¢ $5 54m
Tomás Rodríguez: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $15 55m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY No 95¢ $95 1h
Isidro Pitta: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $95 1h
Isidro Pitta: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Yunus Akgün: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Yunus Akgün: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $102 1h
Julio César Enciso: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Rayan: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $7 1h
Lucas Paquetá: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $7 1h
Gabriel Martinelli: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $6 1h
Kenan Yıldız: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Julio César Enciso: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $59 1h
Rayan: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $9 1h
Lucas Paquetá: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $8 1h
Gabriel Martinelli: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $7 1h
Endrick: 3+ goals BUY No 95¢ $31 1h
Deniz Gül: 3+ goals BUY No 97¢ $103 1h
Arda Güler: 3+ goals BUY No 96¢ $99 1h
Can Uzun: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals BUY No 95¢ $26 1h
Rayan: 3+ goals BUY No 94¢ $29 1h
Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals BUY No 94¢ $22 1h
Lucas Paquetá: 3+ goals BUY No 95¢ $32 1h
Igor Thiago: 3+ goals BUY No 94¢ $24 1h
Gabriel Martinelli: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $7 1h
Éderson: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $92 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,874.13 · official $11,894.20 (match) · 3500 history records