Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:21:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7202…5880 weather 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+1%) realized +$71 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate83%29W / 6L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$584now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$10
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 67% −$22
sports 13% −$11
culture 12% −$3
weather 5% −$10
crypto 1% +$55
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 15 -6.6% -15.5% 87% 0% -12.1%
≤90d 32 -3.1% -12.3% 88% 0% -10.0%
all 35 +0.7% -8.9% 83% 3% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 3% -8.5%
10% -17.6% 3% -17.3%
15% -25.6% 3% -25.3%
20% -32.9% 3% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.46 per $1 lost it wins $2.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$584
Realized+$71
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses29 / 6
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions9
Markets (closed)35 / 44
History coverage106d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $254 $282 +$28 (+11%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 50¢ 44¢ $254 $226 −$28 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on May 29? May 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 29? May 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on May 28? May 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 28? May 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or higher on May 28? May 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on May 28? May 28 $6 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $560 −$10 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 21? May 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or below on May 21? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on May 21? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C or below on May 2 May 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on May 16? May 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 15? May 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on May 15? May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 15? May 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on May 9? May 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C or below on May 9? May 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 9? May 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 9? May 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C or below on April 28? May 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in April? May 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 28? May 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 28 $571 −$3 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $42 $0 +1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 23 $924 +$6 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $508 +$3 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 18 $225 −$2 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 16 $297 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Mar 10 $45 +$55 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $8 19d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $7 19d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $7 19d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or higher on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $9 19d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $8 19d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $6 19d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 55¢ $307 24d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 46¢ $253 24d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $9 27d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $10 27d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or below on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $10 27d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C or below on May 2 BUY No 100¢ $9 27d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $9 32d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 32d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 32d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $9 32d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C or below on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $1 39d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $2 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $584.37 · official $584.37 (match) · 217 history records