Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:02:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7202…e9b1 crypto 1017 markets active 0h ago coverage 166d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 165d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$793 (-8%) realized −$784 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate31%372W / 834L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$829
7 days−$850
14 days−$986
30 days−$696
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$420
other 27% −$172
sports 4% −$69
world 1% +$25
weather 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 220 -84.5% -86.0% 5% 4% -45.2%
≤30d 252 -74.0% -76.5% 10% 9% -28.7%
≤90d 374 -58.6% -62.6% 16% 14% -34.1%
all 1206 -22.1% -29.5% 31% 25% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.5% 25% -21.6%
10% ← realistic here -36.3% 20% -29.1%
15% -42.4% 17% -36.0%
20% -48.1% 14% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$784
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses372 / 834
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1206 / 1017
History coverage166d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1206 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 26? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $131 $122 −$9 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 334 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Pau FC vs. Amiens SC end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 17, 6PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Aston Villa vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 1AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Real Zaragoza vs. UD Las Palmas: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will AC Milan vs. Hellas Verona FC end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Jazz vs. Thunder Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-01-11? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -124%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Universitatea Craiova CS win on 2025-12-18? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 31, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will AS Nancy-Lorraine vs. Clermont Foot 63 end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$2 -308%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 1PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$2 -227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 21, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-07? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 10PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Magic vs. Trail Blazers Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Kings vs. Trail Blazers Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 20¢ $92 7m
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 18¢ $42 56m
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 57m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 33¢ $81 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 16¢ $63 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 27¢ $47 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? SELL No 13¢ $44 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 31¢ $74 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 85¢ $191 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 85¢ $20 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 55¢ $80 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? BUY No 17¢ $27 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 54¢ $26 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? BUY No 14¢ $13 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? BUY No 12¢ $5 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? BUY No 11¢ $6 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 50¢ $50 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 14¢ $18 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? SELL No 10¢ $12 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.12 · official $122.12 (match) · 3500 history records