trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 18 | -52.7% | -57.2% | 28% | 28% | -63.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -57.2% | 28% | -63.0% |
| 10% | -61.3% | 22% | -66.5% |
| 15% | -65.0% | 17% | -69.7% |
| 20% | -68.5% | 11% | -72.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $724 | $602 | −$122 (-17%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 6¢ | $100 | $111 | +$11 (+11%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 7¢ | $88 | $70 | −$19 (-21%) |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | $60 | $54 | −$6 (-9%) |
| Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 28¢ | 28¢ | $54 | $53 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $35 | $47 | +$12 (+34%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 18¢ | $10 | $11 | +$1 (+15%) |
| Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 1¢ | $10 | $11 | +$1 (+10%) |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 14¢ | $10 | $8 | −$2 (-17%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders vs. Chiefs | Oct 19 | $91 | −$91 | -100% |
| US national XRP reserve in 2025? | Oct 19 | $66 | −$61 | -92% |
| Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? | Oct 19 | $100 | −$71 | -71% |
| Trump's sovereign wealth fund acquires Bitcoin before July? | Mar 03 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31? | Mar 03 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? | Mar 03 | $100 | +$17 | +17% |
| Will Amazon purchase Bitcoin before July? | Mar 03 | $100 | −$34 | -34% |
| Bitcoin all time high by March 31? | Feb 02 | $185 | −$185 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by January 31, 2025? | Feb 02 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? | Feb 02 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025? | Jan 31 | $100 | −$97 | -97% |
| Will Trump create a Bitcoin reserve in first week? | Jan 31 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Bitcoin above $105,000 on January 31? | Jan 31 | $140 | +$38 | +27% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by January 31, 2025? | Jan 20 | $100 | +$56 | +56% |
| Rams vs. Eagles | Jan 20 | $40 | +$16 | +41% |
| Ravens vs. Bills | Jan 20 | $40 | +$42 | +104% |
| Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17? | Jan 20 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? | Jan 16 | $270 | −$270 | -100% |