Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:06:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x720d…3272 crypto 348 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1766 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,566 (-4%) realized −$2,642 · open +$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate20%155W / 613L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day1765.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$304now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$580
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1766 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-62.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 768 -58.8% -62.8% 20% 16% -21.8%
≤30d 768 -58.8% -62.8% 20% 16% -21.8%
≤90d 768 -58.8% -62.8% 20% 16% -21.8%
all 768 -58.8% -62.8% 20% 16% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1765.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -62.8% 16% -21.8%
10% ← realistic here -66.3% 12% -29.3%
15% -69.6% 10% -36.1%
20% -72.6% 8% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late -97% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$31 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$304
Realized−$2,642
Unrealized+$76
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses155 / 613
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)768 / 348
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$166
Trades / day1765.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 768 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 0¢ 60¢ $0 $76 +$76 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $0 +$1 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 28 $191 −$191 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 28 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 28 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $49 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $12 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $28 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $12 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $104 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $46 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $187 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $39 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $69 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $17 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $69 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $32 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $14 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $58 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $13 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $37 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $0 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 30m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $304.32 · official $255.51 · 3500 history records