Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:10:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
72 0x7210…4bb5 sports 230 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$446 (+3%) realized +$390 · open +$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%110W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$248est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$176
7 days+$177
14 days+$167
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$495
other 4% −$60
crypto 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +25.3% +13.3% 54% 54% +16.2%
≤30d 138 -2.8% -12.1% 48% 48% -10.2%
≤90d 228 +1.1% -8.5% 48% 48% -7.7%
all 228 +1.1% -8.5% 48% 48% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 48% -7.7%
10% -17.3% 47% -16.5%
15% -25.3% 44% -24.6%
20% -32.6% 39% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$64 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized+$390
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses110 / 118
Est. fees paid−$248
Open positions2
Markets (closed)228 / 230
History coverage56d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Barcelona vs. Valencia Valencia 51¢ 90¢ $51 $90 +$38 (+75%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 46¢ $29 $46 +$18 (+60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Travaglia vs Yi Zhou Jun 24 $50 +$50 +101%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mona Barthel vs Lin Zhu Jun 23 $60 +$40 +67%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Yuriko Miyazaki vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 23 $64 +$36 +56%
Barcelona vs. Valencia Jun 22 $50 +$50 +101%
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 22 $54 −$53 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Alexandra Shubladze Jun 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Angela Fita Boluda vs Lina Gjorcheska Jun 22 $53 −$52 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $59 +$41 +70%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Cloud9 New York - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $57 +$143 +250%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Cloud9 New York - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $52 −$51 -98%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $47 −$46 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $26 +$74 +285%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $155 +$45 +29%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 12 $86 −$85 -98%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $49 +$30 +61%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $104 −$102 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 05 $33 −$32 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 05 $283 +$65 +23%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $55 −$54 -98%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5) Jun 05 $321 −$316 -99%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 05 $33 −$32 -98%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 05 $98 +$102 +104%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $106 +$94 +89%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $40 −$40 -100%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $103 +$97 +93%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $121 +$79 +65%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 3 Winner Jun 04 $148 −$148 -100%
Map Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (+1.5) Jun 04 $107 −$106 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $77 −$76 -98%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $49 −$48 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $102 +$98 +97%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 03 $407 +$133 +33%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $97 −$96 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) Jun 03 $119 +$80 +67%
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics Jun 03 $95 +$105 +109%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 02 $51 +$68 +134%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $95 +$105 +110%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $72 −$72 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $52 −$50 -96%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $183 +$46 +25%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $115 −$114 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $104 +$96 +92%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $97 −$96 -99%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $26 −$26 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $122 −$122 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $36 +$64 +175%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) Jun 01 $137 −$136 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 51¢ $52 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Travaglia vs Yi Zhou BUY Yi Zhou 49¢ $50 10h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mona Barthel vs Lin Zhu BUY Lin Zhu 60¢ $21 27h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mona Barthel vs Lin Zhu BUY Lin Zhu 60¢ $24 27h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mona Barthel vs Lin Zhu BUY Lin Zhu 60¢ $15 27h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 53¢ $1 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Yuriko Miyazaki vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Elizara Yaneva 64¢ $14 2d
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 53¢ $5 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson BUY Gabriela Knutson 17¢ $0 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Yuriko Miyazaki vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Elizara Yaneva 64¢ $18 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Yuriko Miyazaki vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Elizara Yaneva 64¢ $4 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Yuriko Miyazaki vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Elizara Yaneva 64¢ $29 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson BUY Gabriela Knutson 17¢ $4 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson BUY Gabriela Knutson 17¢ $3 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson BUY Gabriela Knutson 17¢ $7 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson BUY Gabriela Knutson 17¢ $0 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Alexandra Shubladze BUY Alexandra Shubladze 38¢ $15 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Alexandra Shubladze BUY Alexandra Shubladze 38¢ $18 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Alexandra Shubladze BUY Alexandra Shubladze 38¢ $1 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Alexandra Shubladze BUY Alexandra Shubladze 38¢ $2 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson BUY Gabriela Knutson 17¢ $2 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Angela Fita Boluda vs Lina Gjorcheska BUY Angela Fita Boluda 52¢ $53 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Alexandra Shubladze BUY Alexandra Shubladze 38¢ $2 2d
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 53¢ $5 2d
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 53¢ $42 2d
Barcelona vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 49¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 58¢ $59 4d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Cloud9 New York - Game 3 Winner BUY Cloud9 New York 17¢ $52 4d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Cloud9 New York - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud9 New York 28¢ $57 4d
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Qatar 46¢ $47 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.00 · official $136.00 (match) · 560 history records