Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:57:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7211…6734 weather 52 markets active 4h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$65 (-4%) realized −$38 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%19W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$433now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$126
7 days−$74
14 days−$81
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% −$63
crypto 3% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -17.3% -25.2% 42% 39% -15.0%
≤30d 45 -10.3% -18.8% 42% 40% -15.1%
≤90d 45 -10.3% -18.8% 42% 40% -15.1%
all 45 -10.3% -18.8% 42% 40% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 40% -15.1%
10% -26.6% 38% -23.2%
15% -33.7% 20% -30.6%
20% -40.2% 16% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$16 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$433
Realized−$38
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses19 / 26
Open positions7
Markets (closed)45 / 52
History coverage10d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 77¢ 82¢ $158 $169 +$12 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $85 $85 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? No 67¢ 66¢ $80 $80 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? Yes 23¢ 30¢ $31 $41 +$10 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? Yes 8¢ 18¢ $16 $35 +$19 (+120%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? No 59¢ 36¢ $38 $23 −$15 (-40%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? No 58¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $93 −$28 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $137 −$28 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $17 −$4 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $48 −$9 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $22 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $101 +$24 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 16 $31 +$10 +34%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 16 $83 +$51 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $21 +$9 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $32 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $30 −$26 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 15 $75 −$8 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $12 +$4 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? Jun 15 $14 −$4 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $20 +$7 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $41 +$20 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 −$6 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $38 +$29 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $27 +$7 +27%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $28 +$7 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $16 +$5 +34%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 13 $13 +$3 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 13 $33 −$23 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $18 +$63 +339%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $12 −$12 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 10? Jun 11 $12 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on June 10? Jun 11 $40 +$25 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 8? Jun 09 $10 +$30 +292%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 09 $14 +$26 +184%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 09 $3 +$4 +121%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 07 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 8? Jun 07 $18 −$17 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 07 $24 −$24 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $28 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $18 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $14 4h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $432.71 · official $432.06 (match) · 174 history records