Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:01:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7214…7d0b other 260 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%14W / 246L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$22
14 days−$32
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$46
sports 20% −$22
politics 9% −$9
culture 7% −$9
crypto 7% −$5
economics 6% −$4
world 2% +$1
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 174 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
all 260 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses14 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)260 / 260
History coverage142d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 260 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $198 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $510 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $116 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $513 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $371 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $290 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $857 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $604 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $257 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $286 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $116 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $478 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $239 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $244 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $840 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $252 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $140 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $333 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $217 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $257 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $611 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $631 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $667 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $149 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $138 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $218 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $425 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $240 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $430 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 04 $370 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $208 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 1h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 3h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $56 4h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $56 6h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 7h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 9h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 10h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 12h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 13h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $56 15h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 16h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 18h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 20h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 22h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 28h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 29h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 31h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 33h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $57 38h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $57 39h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $57 41h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 42h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $57 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $1 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1510 history records