Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:57:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7216…e7d0 crypto 708 markets active 2h ago coverage 332d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,965 (-13%) realized −$2,106 · open −$859
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate53%372W / 330L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$527
14 days−$896
30 days−$947
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$1,276
other 21% −$2,567
tech 7% +$203
sports 7% −$72
politics 1% −$110
world 0% −$16
finance 0% +$30
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 51 -37.1% -43.1% 41% 29% -24.8%
≤90d 102 -40.5% -46.2% 30% 25% -27.5%
all 702 -9.4% -18.0% 53% 36% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 36% -21.9%
10% -25.9% 27% -29.4%
15% -33.0% 21% -36.2%
20% -39.6% 16% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$22 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

332d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized−$2,106
Unrealized−$859
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses372 / 330
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions7
Markets (closed)702 / 708
History coverage332d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 702 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $170 $170 +$0 (+0%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $8 −$42 (-83%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $455 $5 −$450 (-99%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? No 15¢ 0¢ $198 $2 −$196 (-99%)
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $172 $1 −$171 (-100%)
Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114K and $115K on August 2 at 5P Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $528 −$525 -100%
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Jun 18 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +8%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $30 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $166 −$160 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 15 $41 +$19 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $110 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$8 -37%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $50 +$13 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $51 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $135 −$130 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $204 +$67 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $117 −$83 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $220 +$126 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $23 −$22 -94%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $312 +$62 +20%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $11 +$16 +146%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $283 −$280 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 13 $133 −$131 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $84 −$79 -94%
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $737 +$425 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $600 +$301 +50%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $100 +$18 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $427 +$326 +76%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 06 $50 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 06 $202 −$197 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 06 $70 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -95%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 06 $30 −$28 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 15¢ $100 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $82 2h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 15¢ $103 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 5h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 5h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 5h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $125 7h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 7h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $251 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $503 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $25 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 9d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) SELL Conor McGregor 33¢ $10 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $30 11d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 52¢ $29 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $21 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $156 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 78¢ $60 12d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 12d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $30 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $110 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.71 · official $208.27 (match) · 2718 history records