Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:37:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7216…1e08 sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$168 (-8%) realized −$168 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days−$139
14 days−$139
30 days−$181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$437
other 35% −$516
crypto 5% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -16.5% -24.5% 38% 25% -21.6%
≤30d 11 -23.8% -31.1% 36% 27% -17.0%
≤90d 11 -23.8% -31.1% 36% 27% -17.0%
all 11 -23.8% -31.1% 36% 27% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.1% 27% -17.0%
10% -37.7% 27% -25.0%
15% -43.7% 18% -32.2%
20% -49.2% 18% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$112 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$168
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage27d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $196 +$5 +2%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 +$31 +31%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $133 −$10 -8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $104 −$102 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $56 −$5 -9%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 19 $167 −$164 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $84 −$2 -2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $202 +$109 +54%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $298 −$298 -100%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $200 −$200 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $650 +$456 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Under 53¢ $201 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $34 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $15 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $46 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $5 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $40 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $10 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $43 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 32¢ $123 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $62 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $10 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $2 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $1 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $3 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $5 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $10 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $2 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $1 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $38 30h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $104 32h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 21¢ $51 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 22¢ $56 46h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $102 46h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 46¢ $167 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 21¢ $82 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 21¢ $84 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $0 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $311 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 64¢ $202 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records