Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:28:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7227…1c59 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$18 (+3%) realized +$19 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate57%17W / 13L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% +$23
other 11% −$6
politics 5% +$1
weather 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 1% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.4% -5.5% 50% 33% -5.6%
≤30d 10 +10.3% -0.2% 60% 40% -3.2%
≤90d 13 +8.0% -2.3% 54% 31% -4.7%
all 30 -2.8% -12.0% 57% 13% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 13% -6.8%
10% -20.5% 3% -15.7%
15% -28.1% 3% -23.8%
20% -35.2% 3% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.97 per $1 lost it wins $2.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage469d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $65 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $10 $0 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $52 +$8 +14%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $9 +$2 +17%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $11 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $46 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $48 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $16 +$9 +58%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $30 +$5 +17%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 20 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $41 $0 +1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 19 $10 $0 -2%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -66%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 26 $5 $0 -1%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $1 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $5 $0 +10%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 20 $4 −$1 -21%
Trump x Xi talk by Friday? Apr 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? Mar 28 $12 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Mar 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 24? Mar 25 $12 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? Mar 20 $15 −$3 -22%
Will the CDU/CSU win between 28% and 30% of the vote in the German ele Mar 15 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $38 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $65 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $65 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 57¢ $60 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 50¢ $31 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 50¢ $21 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 39h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 41h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 28¢ $11 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $51 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $33 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $18 2d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $2 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $13 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $34 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $48 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $8 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $17 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $16 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.37 · official $37.37 (match) · 91 history records