Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:21:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7227…80ce sports 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,838 (+59%) realized +$1,490 · open +$348
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%12W / 21L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$854now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$298
7 days+$298
14 days+$485
30 days+$485
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% −$494
other 37% +$2,766
world 20% −$244
tech 6% −$190
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +84.7% +67.1% 60% 60% +101.4%
≤30d 11 +66.8% +50.9% 64% 64% +79.9%
≤90d 20 -0.4% -9.8% 35% 35% -29.3%
all 33 +29.1% +16.8% 36% 33% +42.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.8% 33% +42.2%
10% +5.6% 33% +28.6%
15% -4.6% 33% +16.1%
20% -13.9% 33% +4.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$238 vs −$65 · ×3.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$854
Realized+$1,490
Unrealized+$348
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)33 / 39
History coverage176d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? No 21¢ 87¢ $150 $613 +$463 (+309%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $254 $135 −$119 (-47%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 76¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+30%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 Over 45¢ 43¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 60¢ 34¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-43%)
Will Merab Dvalishvili fight Payton Talbott next? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $41 +$31 +76%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $41 −$40 -99%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$243 +474%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$74 +73%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $31 +$85 +276%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $61 +$41 +67%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $25 +$26 +103%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $101 +$65 +65%
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 23 $490 −$156 -32%
Spread: Patriots (-4.5) Mar 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minute Mar 29 $30 −$3 -10%
UFC Fight Night: Brad Tavares vs. Eryk Anders (Middleweight, Prelims) Mar 29 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Mar 29 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 29 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 29 $60 −$60 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Sam Hughes vs. Piera Rodriguez (Women's Strawweight, Mar 29 $42 −$42 -100%
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card) Mar 29 $145 −$145 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Mar 01 $100 +$54 +54%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 15 $90 −$90 -100%
Big Game: Player/HC to cry during National Anthem? Feb 11 $20 +$36 +178%
Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Feb 04 $40 −$40 -100%
UFC 325: Tuivasa vs. Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $200 −$200 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January? Jan 24 $165 +$2,130 +1291%
US forces enter Iran by January 31? Jan 18 $20 −$12 -60%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 18 $20 −$10 -48%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 18 $40 −$27 -67%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of January? Jan 14 $91 +$1 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of January? Jan 09 $60 +$71 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $51 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $20 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 4h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $41 4h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 23h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 26¢ $31 10d
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 10d
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 22¢ $20 10d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 49¢ $25 10d
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $101 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 26¢ $299 63d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 37¢ $2 64d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 37¢ $6 64d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 37¢ $2 64d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 37¢ $7 64d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 37¢ $13 64d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 37¢ $6 64d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 41¢ $100 73d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 40¢ $100 73d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 39¢ $290 73d
UFC Fight Night: Brad Tavares vs. Eryk Anders (Middleweight, Prelims) BUY Brad Tavares 39¢ $30 103d
UFC Fight Night: Brad Tavares vs. Eryk Anders (Middleweight, Prelims) BUY Brad Tavares 37¢ $20 103d
UFC Fight Night: Brad Tavares vs. Eryk Anders (Middleweight, Prelims) BUY Brad Tavares 31¢ $100 103d
UFC Fight Night: Sam Hughes vs. Piera Rodriguez (Women's Strawweight, BUY Sam Hughes 21¢ $39 103d
UFC Fight Night: Sam Hughes vs. Piera Rodriguez (Women's Strawweight, BUY Sam Hughes 21¢ $3 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $853.73 · official $855.31 (match) · 113 history records