trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 5 | +11.0% | +0.4% | 80% | 40% | -0.7% |
| all | 29 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 41% | 10% | -6.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.7% | 10% | -6.9% |
| 10% | -18.4% | 10% | -15.8% |
| 15% | -26.3% | 7% | -23.9% |
| 20% | -33.5% | 7% | -31.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 94¢ | 93¢ | $38 | $37 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76ers vs. Celtics | Apr 27 | $163 | −$163 | -100% |
| Penguins vs. Capitals | Apr 21 | $104 | +$66 | +64% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? | Apr 06 | $429 | +$1 | +0% |
| Spread: Knicks (-19.5) | Mar 24 | $228 | +$202 | +89% |
| Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Mar 20 | $216 | +$4 | +2% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee | Mar 02 | $222 | +$2 | +1% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Feb 24 | $213 | +$7 | +3% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? | Jan 14 | $209 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jan 11 | $5 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? | Jan 03 | $215 | +$2 | +1% |
| Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Dec 14 | $4 | $0 | -12% |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | Dec 08 | $412 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Dec 03 | $9 | −$1 | -15% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 01 | $208 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Nov 28 | $7 | +$2 | +23% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? | Nov 25 | $208 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Nov 21 | $7 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? | Nov 18 | $211 | +$2 | +1% |
| Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Nov 16 | $2 | $0 | -25% |
| Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? | Nov 07 | $15 | +$1 | +7% |
| Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Oct 28 | $207 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Oct 22 | $185 | −$2 | -1% |
| Will Ethereum reach $6000 in October? | Oct 20 | $2 | $0 | -28% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? | Oct 20 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? | Oct 19 | $210 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Oct 15 | $8 | −$1 | -6% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | Oct 13 | $192 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? | Oct 10 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Oct 08 | $142 | −$2 | -2% |