Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:26:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7229…ff54 crypto 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 624d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate85%34W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% −$9
tech 21% +$4
weather 14% +$4
other 12% +$2
politics 9% $0
world 3% $0
culture 3% $0
sports 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.0% -5.9% 100% 0% -5.9%
≤30d 1 +4.0% -5.9% 100% 0% -5.9%
≤90d 6 +4.6% -5.4% 100% 17% -5.6%
all 40 -5.3% -14.3% 85% 15% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 15% -9.5%
10% -22.5% 8% -18.2%
15% -30.0% 2% -26.1%
20% -36.9% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

624d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses34 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage624d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? No 98¢ 98¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 93¢ 93¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 30? Jun 22 $45 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 30? Apr 30 $18 +$2 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 6? Apr 30 $6 $0 +5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 30 $8 $0 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 6? Apr 30 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 6? Apr 30 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 14? Mar 06 $11 $0 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 06 $34 +$1 +3%
Maduro out in 2025? Feb 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? Feb 14 $6 $0 +5%
Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? Feb 14 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 14 $18 $0 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Dec 24 $4 $0 +8%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July Aug 19 $21 +$2 +9%
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? Jul 14 $12 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Anthony Edwards Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down on May 17? Jun 29 $4 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 17? Jun 29 $10 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? May 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 17 $5 $0 +6%
Will SOL flip ETH before May? May 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana above $200 on February 21? Apr 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Apr 05 $2 $0 +8%
Will Jacques Audiard win Best Director at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "E Apr 05 $15 $0 +3%
Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21? Apr 05 $23 $0 +2%
Solana above $215 on January 24? Feb 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will Biden finish his term? Feb 15 $8 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 15 $9 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 15 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $3,250 in November? Jan 04 $2 $0 +6%
Raptors vs. Lakers Jan 04 $2 +$1 +27%
No Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 04 $3 $0 +14%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 04 $4 $0 +8%
Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity not be proven in 2024? Jan 04 $4 +$1 +14%
Will a Republican win Montana US Senate Election? Nov 11 $3 +$1 +27%
Will Ethereum reach $2,750 in October? Nov 11 $2 +$3 +144%
Will 'Joker: Folie à Deux' gross less than $105m opening weekend? Nov 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Oct 06 $4 −$2 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $14 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 30? BUY Yes 96¢ $45 52d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 52d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 30? BUY Yes 88¢ $18 53d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 95¢ $8 107d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 6? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 107d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 6? BUY Yes 96¢ $6 108d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 14? BUY Yes 96¢ $11 128d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru BUY Yes 97¢ $34 128d
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? BUY Yes 95¢ $6 179d
Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 179d
Maduro out in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $6 179d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem BUY Yes 93¢ $4 247d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July BUY Yes 92¢ $21 342d
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? BUY No 98¢ $12 358d
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 358d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 400d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 97¢ $18 400d
Solana Up or Down on May 17? BUY Down 98¢ $4 400d
Ethereum Up or Down on May 17? BUY Down 98¢ $10 400d
Will Anthony Edwards Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 400d
Will SOL flip ETH before May? BUY No 100¢ $26 443d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 443d
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 491d
Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be less than $500m on Feb 21? BUY Yes 98¢ $23 491d
Solana above $200 on February 21? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 491d
Will Jacques Audiard win Best Director at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "E BUY No 97¢ $15 491d
Solana above $215 on January 24? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 518d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.89 · official $39.86 (match) · 82 history records