Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:16:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x722d…cacc sports 365 markets active 1h ago coverage 662d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$108 (-0%) realized −$108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%25W / 339L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$8
14 days−$26
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 33% −$111
other 30% +$21
politics 26% −$12
economics 4% −$4
crypto 2% −$12
world 2% −$7
tech 2% −$2
culture 1% −$3
finance 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.4% -9.9% 5% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 75 -2.0% -11.3% 7% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 101 -1.7% -11.1% 6% 0% -10.8%
all 364 -0.7% -10.1% 7% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

662d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses25 / 339
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)364 / 365
History coverage662d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 364 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 92¢ 92¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 28 $75 $0 -1%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 27 $48 $0 -1%
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 27 $42 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 27 $111 $0 -0%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 27 $74 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $47 $0 -0%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 26 $20 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 26 $198 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 26 $98 $0 -0%
Will Algeria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $19 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 25 $159 −$2 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $229 $0 -0%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 24 $20 $0 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $61 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $32 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $32 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $26 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $191 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 21 $57 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $145 −$1 -1%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 18 $149 −$2 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 18 $206 −$3 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 18 $271 −$3 -1%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $27 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $31 $0 -1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $225 −$1 -1%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $34 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 16 $36 −$1 -4%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $82 $0 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $68 −$1 -2%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $67 −$2 -2%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $26 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 13 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 13 $30 $0 -1%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White S Jun 12 $55 −$53 -97%
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $161 −$2 -1%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $45 $0 -1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $60 $0 -0%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 10 $43 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 92¢ $18 1h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $30 1h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $30 9h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $28 10h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $27 14h
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 98¢ $18 14h
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 97¢ $18 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 97¢ $18 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 97¢ $18 25h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 97¢ $23 25h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 98¢ $23 31h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $22 32h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $22 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $24 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 97¢ $24 41h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $20 42h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $20 47h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $25 47h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $25 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $24 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $24 2d
Will Algeria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $19 2d
Will Algeria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $19 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $31 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $31 3d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 98¢ $28 3d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 98¢ $28 3d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $24 3d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $24 3d
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 91¢ $19 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.70 · official $17.70 (match) · 1376 history records