Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:56:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
72 0x722d…1b4e sports 725 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,061 (+1%) realized +$1,073 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%663W / 48L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$203est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$2,345now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$344
7 days−$929
14 days−$762
30 days+$1,155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$297
other 28% +$1,202
world 0% +$2
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 -3.9% -13.0% 90% 2% -12.2%
≤30d 500 -0.3% -9.8% 94% 1% -8.6%
≤90d 706 -1.1% -10.5% 93% 0% -8.9%
all 711 -1.0% -10.4% 93% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -8.9%
10% -19.0% 0% -17.7%
15% -26.8% 0% -25.6%
20% -34.0% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$160 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$2,345
Realized+$1,073
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses663 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$203
Open positions14
Markets (closed)711 / 725
History coverage114d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 711 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 92¢ 92¢ $544 $547 +$3 (+1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Over 93¢ 94¢ $289 $291 +$2 (+1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Under 96¢ 94¢ $242 $235 −$6 (-3%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Neither team to score first? No 95¢ 92¢ $220 $214 −$6 (-3%)
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Colombia 98¢ 98¢ $177 $178 +$1 (+0%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Under 98¢ 97¢ $176 $175 −$1 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Under 96¢ 96¢ $146 $146 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Switzerland 96¢ 96¢ $117 $117 −$0 (-0%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? No 91¢ 92¢ $108 $109 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Mexico 93¢ 92¢ $85 $85 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) Uzbekistan 91¢ 88¢ $78 $76 −$2 (-3%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Under 93¢ 92¢ $65 $64 −$0 (-0%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 93¢ 92¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Under 98¢ 97¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $97 +$7 +7%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $161 +$5 +3%
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) Jun 18 $79 +$5 +6%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $435 +$37 +8%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $330 +$24 +7%
Spread: Panama (-2.5) Jun 18 $240 +$5 +2%
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $128 +$12 +9%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $135 +$11 +8%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 17 $107 +$5 +5%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $53 +$2 +4%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $118 +$6 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $363 +$22 +6%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $113 +$8 +7%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $193 +$5 +2%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $69 +$7 +10%
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Jun 17 $161 +$5 +3%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $107 +$6 +6%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $59 +$4 +7%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $160 +$5 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $90 +$9 +10%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $355 +$34 +10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $71 +$3 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $107 +$8 +7%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 17 $241 +$6 +2%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 17 $363 +$26 +7%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $661 +$34 +5%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $48 +$2 +4%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $81 +$5 +6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $182 +$17 +10%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $320 +$16 +5%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $202 +$12 +6%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $72 +$2 +3%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $394 −$69 -18%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $105 +$3 +2%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $27 +$2 +7%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $481 +$46 +10%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $70 +$4 +5%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 +$3 +8%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $121 −$121 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $104 +$4 +4%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $89 +$6 +7%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 16 $156 +$5 +3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $61 +$1 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $31 +$2 +5%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $142 +$6 +4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $133 +$10 +7%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $213 +$13 +6%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $43 +$1 +3%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $157 +$7 +5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $195 +$12 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $52 1h
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) BUY Uzbekistan 91¢ $78 2h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 96¢ $117 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $176 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $65 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 93¢ $97 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $147 6h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Neither team to score first? BUY No 95¢ $220 6h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 2.5 BUY Under 93¢ $330 6h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY No 96¢ $53 17h
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) BUY Panama 94¢ $79 17h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $118 17h
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) BUY Colombia 98¢ $177 18h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 93¢ $57 20h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Mexico 93¢ $86 20h
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? BUY No 91¢ $128 20h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? BUY No 97¢ $193 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $290 21h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $435 21h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY England 95¢ $107 23h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $161 23h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $242 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $363 25h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $545 25h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $107 28h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $160 28h
Spread: Panama (-2.5) BUY Ghana 98¢ $240 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $48 45h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $71 45h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $107 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,344.89 · official $2,344.89 (match) · 1419 history records