Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:22:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x722d…2550 crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$40 (-4%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$236
7 days−$67
14 days−$67
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -6.0% -15.0% 57% 57% -14.9%
≤30d 23 -6.0% -15.0% 57% 57% -14.9%
≤90d 24 -9.9% -18.5% 54% 54% -15.0%
all 24 -9.9% -18.5% 54% 54% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 54% -15.0%
10% -26.3% 54% -23.2%
15% -33.4% 50% -30.6%
20% -39.9% 46% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$46 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage86d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$38 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$32 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$33 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$41 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$28 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$52 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$28 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$50 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$41 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $52 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $51 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $51 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $51 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $51 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $52 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $52 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records