Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:38:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

72 0x7230…b65a other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$11 (+2%) realized −$37 · open +$48

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +120% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +83% what you keep after slip

Net edge+83%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown7%max

Avg bet$110per market

Trades / day10.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$278now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)+98.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+119.5%	+98.6%	50%	25%	+64.1%
≤30d	4	+119.5%	+98.6%	50%	25%	+64.1%
≤90d	4	+119.5%	+98.6%	50%	25%	+64.1%
all	4	+119.5%	+98.6%	50%	25%	+64.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+98.6%	25%	+64.1%
10%	+79.6%	25%	+48.4%
15%	+62.2%	25%	+34.0%
20%	+46.3%	25%	+20.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +81% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +120% · $-wt +81% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$67 vs −$6 · ×11.8 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×11.8 per $1 lost it wins $11.8

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$278

Realized−$37

Unrealized+$48

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$110

Trades / day10.0

Drawdown7%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	69¢	84¢	$230	$278	+$48 (+21%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 23	$21	+$126	+592%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$9	−$8	-94%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$104	+$7	+7%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	Jun 23	$16	−$3	-20%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	69¢	$241	1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$148	2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	67¢	$143	2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	6¢	$9	6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	67¢	$157	6h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$21	6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	100¢	$111	6h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	10¢	$13	8h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	11¢	$16	8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$104	8h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $278.33 · official $278.33 (match) · 10 history records