Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:42:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x7232…03ef sports 138 markets active 8d ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$13,314 (+5%) realized +$13,272 · open +$42
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate51%70W / 66L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$1,887per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$474now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1,252
30 days+$2,831
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 46% −$119
sports 24% +$13,058
crypto 13% −$77
other 12% +$446
world 4% −$82
tech 2% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 94 +3.5% -6.4% 43% 41% +36.1%
≤90d 103 +3.7% -6.2% 48% 39% +24.1%
all 136 +4.0% -5.9% 51% 31% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 31% -4.9%
10% -14.9% 29% -14.0%
15% -23.2% 29% -22.3%
20% -30.7% 29% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$219 vs −$32 · ×6.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.19 per $1 lost it wins $7.19
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$474
Realized+$13,272
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses70 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions2
Markets (closed)136 / 138
History coverage171d
Avg bet$1,887
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $290 $300 +$10 (+3%)
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 71¢ 87¢ $142 $174 +$32 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $22 +$20 +90%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $13 +$8 +60%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $14 +$28 +206%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $18 −$18 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $17 −$16 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $18 −$17 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $17 −$16 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $18 −$17 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $19 −$18 -98%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $23 +$19 +83%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $22 −$1 -2%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $21 +$21 +101%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 +$11 +109%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $12 +$9 +76%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$19 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$9 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $434 +$267 +62%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $22 −$1 -2%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $27 +$3 +12%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $113 +$196 +172%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $12 +$9 +79%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$11 +105%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $26 +$25 +99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $17 +$13 +76%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $35 −$24 -67%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $23 −$22 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $170 +$194 +114%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $9 +$12 +134%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $13 +$8 +65%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $14 +$28 +206%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $276 +$290 +105%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$22 +114%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $9 +$12 +134%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $9 +$12 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 52¢ $11 8d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $9 8d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $8 8d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $9 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $7 8d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $13 8d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $8 8d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $9 8d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 32¢ $7 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $9 8d
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY No 58¢ $12 8d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $8 8d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $9 8d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 32¢ $7 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $9 8d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 52¢ $11 8d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $9 8d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $8 8d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $9 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $7 8d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? BUY No 57¢ $12 9d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $10 9d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 9d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $5 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $11 9d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY No 56¢ $12 9d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $10 9d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $9 9d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $7 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 42¢ $9 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $473.85 · official $473.85 (match) · 767 history records