Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
72 0x7233…6520 sports 43 markets active 8h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$352 (+22%) realized +$353 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%19W / 20L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day24.8pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days+$178
14 days+$334
30 days+$334
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$334
other 1% −$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -19.7% -27.4% 39% 36% +2.8%
≤30d 39 +2.7% -7.1% 49% 46% +9.3%
≤90d 39 +2.7% -7.1% 49% 46% +9.3%
all 39 +2.7% -7.1% 49% 46% +9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 46% +9.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 46% -1.2%
15% -24.1% 41% -10.7%
20% -31.5% 33% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$27 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$353
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses19 / 20
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions4
Markets (closed)39 / 43
History coverage9d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day24.8
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 50¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will Czechia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 17 $44 +$39 +88%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $25 +$9 +34%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $62 +$30 +49%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $60 +$42 +69%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $224 +$5 +2%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $57 +$94 +165%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $47 −$47 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$6 +119%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $144 +$159 +111%
Set Handicap: Samuel (-1.5) vs Sweeny (+1.5) Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel Jun 13 $87 −$87 -100%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $86 +$218 +253%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $72 −$72 -100%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $30 +$33 +108%
Set Handicap: Kyrgios (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $47 +$70 +149%
Auger-Aliassime vs. Fucsovics: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Hijikata (+1.5) Jun 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $46 −$46 -100%
Ilkley: Hamish Stewart vs Leandro Riedi Jun 10 $1 $0 +32%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $1 +$3 +226%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $25 +$45 +180%
Stuttgart Open: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs James Duckworth Jun 09 $51 +$20 +40%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 09 $177 +$78 +44%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $6 +$5 +79%
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron Jun 09 $6 +$4 +73%
Ilkley: August Holmgren vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Jun 08 $11 +$13 +112%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -25%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 56¢ $20 7h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 57¢ $1 7h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 57¢ $2 7h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 57¢ $1 7h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 57¢ $6 7h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 52¢ $20 8h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Thomas Faurel 75¢ $20 9h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Brandon Nakashima 74¢ $13 13h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Thomas Faurel 75¢ $11 13h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Thomas Faurel 75¢ $2 13h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Thomas Faurel 75¢ $20 13h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Brandon Nakashima 74¢ $12 13h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 53¢ $20 13h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 60¢ $20 14h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 60¢ $1 14h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 60¢ $1 14h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 60¢ $3 14h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 60¢ $2 14h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Katie Volynets 60¢ $1 14h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 52¢ $4 17h
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot BUY Daniel Jade 53¢ $20 18h
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot BUY Daniel Jade 52¢ $20 18h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 67¢ $17 30h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 67¢ $20 30h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 66¢ $1 30h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 66¢ $1 30h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 66¢ $20 30h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 66¢ $3 30h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 36¢ $20 35h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 58¢ $20 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.41 · official $28.41 (match) · 269 history records