Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:35:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x723a…bd86 world 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 540d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate40%27W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$9
politics 28% −$1
other 15% −$5
sports 11% −$13
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.7% -7.1% 83% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 14 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 7% -9.8%
≤90d 55 -0.0% -9.5% 42% 2% -9.4%
all 67 -2.9% -12.2% 40% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 1% -9.8%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

540d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses27 / 40
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage540d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $34 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 21 $24 +$1 +4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $74 −$5 -7%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $3 $0 +7%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $39 +$4 +9%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $44 −$1 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $25 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $117 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 10 $21 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -17%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $6 +$1 +15%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 23 $43 +$2 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $81 +$5 +6%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $81 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 19 $14 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $80 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $80 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $52 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $116 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $40 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $44 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $25 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $6 $0 -5%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $38 −$1 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $51 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 14 $39 $0 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $151 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $42 $0 +1%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $128 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $4 $0 +0%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $2 $0 -13%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 08 $44 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 05 $43 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $40 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $123 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $41 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 31 $43 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $34 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $34 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $26 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 75¢ $6 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 74¢ $27 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 74¢ $10 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $39 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $28 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $28 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $42 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $42 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $22 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $20 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $44 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $25 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $14 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $11 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $38 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $20 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $21 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $40 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $35 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.00 (match) · 315 history records