Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
72 0x723c…317a world 86 markets active 6h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$44 (-5%) realized −$63 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate59%44W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$26
14 days+$19
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$23
politics 10% +$6
finance 6% −$17
sports 6% +$11
other 5% −$27
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +47.5% +33.5% 70% 40% +33.6%
≤30d 35 -6.6% -15.5% 49% 23% -20.3%
≤90d 75 -7.7% -16.5% 59% 28% -18.5%
all 75 -7.7% -16.5% 59% 28% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 28% -18.5%
10% -24.5% 15% -26.3%
15% -31.8% 11% -33.4%
20% -38.5% 9% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses44 / 31
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)75 / 86
History coverage70d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 58¢ 84¢ $25 $37 +$12 (+47%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 25¢ 32¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+25%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? No 88¢ 92¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 83¢ 81¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 82¢ 83¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 21¢ 95¢ $2 $8 +$7 (+356%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Yes 83¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 85¢ 86¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No 42¢ 24¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-43%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 19¢ 6¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $10 +$19 +188%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $5 +$9 +183%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -55%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +164%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $10 $0 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 07 $5 $0 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $5 $0 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $5 −$3 -67%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $5 +$7 +143%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $15 −$10 -65%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$2 -33%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 31 $10 +$1 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 30 $5 −$4 -78%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? May 29 $5 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 26 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 25 $15 +$3 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $15 −$8 -55%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $5 −$2 -39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $5 +$1 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $5 −$1 -10%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $5 +$1 +16%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $10 −$6 -57%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 22 $10 −$9 -88%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 20 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $5 −$4 -79%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $15 −$10 -69%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $5 +$2 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $15 +$6 +42%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $5 +$2 +34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 06 $5 $0 +2%
Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 30, 20 May 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? May 01 $25 −$21 -83%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 01 $20 +$2 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 30 $15 −$15 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 30 $5 $0 +5%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Apr 30 $5 $0 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Apr 30 $10 $0 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 29 $5 $0 +4%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, Apr 27 $15 +$3 +20%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 27 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $5 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $5 5h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 6h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 83¢ $5 11h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 83¢ $5 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $0 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $0 14h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 83¢ $5 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $0 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $0 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $0 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $0 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $0 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $0 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 18h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $5 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 70¢ $0 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 69¢ $0 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 69¢ $0 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 69¢ $0 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 69¢ $1 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $0 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $0 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $0 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $0 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 67¢ $0 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 68¢ $0 19h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 96¢ $2 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.31 · official $131.31 (match) · 880 history records